Week 4 Bets

Anyone having fun yet? Sure, we are down overall (assuming you tailed MNF, if not - you are up!) - but don't you just love a good sweat? Plus, we are on a two week winning streak. You know what is better than a two week winning streak? Sex.

Bet you didn't see that coming.

Bet you were expecting something cliche like, "A three week winning streak."

Well, we don't lie at "Stacking the Bet." Instead, we spit the truf atchu peeps - and yes, sex is better than a two week winning streak. So is taking a really nice shit and then getting a warm shower. Unbelievably, enjoyable. Can you imagine combining all three? Holy shit, I am hardening up just thinking about it. What is better than that? A ten week winning streak.

We have two weeks down, let's make a run and get to that double digits train - get this baby rolling!! This week I am going to put the bets in order of confidence - my most confident bet will go first and then the riskier bets will be near the bottom....

Week 4 Bets

A) Chiefs/Titans/Buccaneers moneyline: $25 to win $57.17

This should go without out explanation - but here we go....

Chiefs v Eagles: I can not remember the last time Patrick Mahomes has had a losing record - let alone sitting at the bottom of the division. Ask yourself: Is it going to stay that way? Uhhhhhh, no. In fact, this game might look eerily similar to the Bills week 2 game - time for the Chiefs to make a statement.

Titans v Jets: I think I am just going to take every team that faces the Jets. Every. Single. Time.

Buccaneers v Patriots: Everybody and their grandma (how about that for cliche sayings) knows exactly how this game is going to go. Brady and the boys are coming to town to show New England what they are missing.

B) Total combined field goals over 125.5 yards (Raven/Broncos): $25 to win $47.72

Did you watch the Ravens from week3? Tucker hit over 180 yards of field goals by himself. Will he do that again this week? Probably not. However, he gets help from the Broncos - this should be easy money. Something seems fishy with the number - why so low? Do they know something we don't know? Sometimes, it pays to just keep it simple.

C) Joe Burrow over 245.5 passing yards: $25 to win $46.73

Burrow has averaged 213 yards a game this season - which makes this bet look bad right? However, the following is also true....

Jags v Tyrod Taylor = 291 passing yards

Jags v Teddy Bridgewater = 328 passing yards

Jags v Kyler Murray = 316 passing yards

Each one of these quarterbacks all increased their average by at least 35.5 yards (Murray) and as much as 84.5 yards (Taylor). This should be a no brainer - but we know how some no brainers. 

D) Browns -2/Raiders ML/Buccaneers ML/LionsvBears under 42.5 points: $20 to win $245.06

Let's break this down....

Browns v Vikings: The Browns are one of the few teams that can control the ball on offense with the run or through the air. They have multiple playmakers with OBJ, Chubb, Hunt. They also have one of the top defenses in the NFL. Smart money would be on the Browns to win, smarter money is the Browns to cover and get the extra odds.

Raiders v Chargers: This is the MNF game and this give us an opportunity to hedge. I do think the Raiders matchup extremely well against the Chargers. They have a tough defense and Carr is having the season of his life.

Buccaneers v Patriots: We all know how this game is going. You can look at Bet "A" and read the game breakdown.

Lions/Bears under 42.5 points: The Chicago defense is an absolute monstrosity and as good as they are on defense they are that bad on offense. The Lions are awful on offense - look for this game to be an awful one to watch, but an easy one to take the under on.

E) Colts -3/Titans ML/Jags +7/TexansvBills over 47: $15 to win $194.80

This is the AFC South parlay...

Colts -3 is an Alternative Spread - originally the Colts are 2 point underdogs. I think that the Colts have been victims of a rough beginning to the season. They are a much better team that what the season has shown. Yes, they are dealing with injuries - but they are still much better. If the Colts end up winning, they will win by more than three - may as well give up the points if you think they are going to win outright.

Titans ML - once again, they are playing the Jets. Every. Single. Time.

Jaguars +7 - The Jaguars have a chance to keep this game somewhat close if they can control the ball on offense. James Robinson has the potential to be a top 10 running back in the league and he would arguably the best player on the field. If Urban can get him the ball, the Jaguars can keep this close.

Texans/Bills over 47 - Allen and the Bills have been torching the scoreboard. If the Texans are able to open their offense like they did at the end of the first half (against the Panthers) and the end of the second half this has a tremendous chance to reach the over. Look for the Bills to score 35+ and we are betting that the Texans are able score 14+...... which could happen is Mills is able to get into the hurry up.

Let's make it a week and keep this train rolling!!!

Week 3 Results

I said we were going to keep the train rolling - and we did just that. Not only did we get to enjoy USA dominating in the Ryder Cup (missed placing some bets for the blog), but we also enjoyed a great weekend of NFL football. Let's take a look at where are at and how things went for Week 3....

A) SGP (Same Game Parlay) Panthers/Over 42.5/Darnold over 229.5 passing/CMC 3+ receptions

Honestly, I felt great about this bet..... until CMC got hurt. If CMC had not gotten hurt, he was a shoe-in for the receptions portion of the bet. The Panthers easily cruised to a victory - which we all expected. Darnold had over 300 yards passing.... which we expected. The issue was losing CMC so early which really hurt their offensive efficiency. CMC already had two receptions in the first quarter, one could easily expect another reception sometime throughout the game. Not to mention, he would have helped sustain drives and we could have easily seen another touchdown or two in the game. Which would have locked up the other two portions of the bet. However, injuries happen and there is really nothing we can do to predict that.

B) Falcons/Giants highest scoring game

Boy oh boy, this did not go anywhere as expected. With so much potential for the offenses to finally get going in a matchup where both teams lack on the defensive side of the ball - nothing really came from it. Neither offense could really get it going until it was too late and neither side of the ball looked comfortable airing it out. I said this was a sucker's bet and yet I still placed it. It is similar to looking down on the ground and seeing a piece of shit, saying "That is a piece of shit," and then picking up the piece of shit. Why are we such degenerates?

C) Buccs/Rams - no player to score 2+ touchdowns

Cooper Kupp is officially unstoppable. I would make this same bet every week - and it will hit more often than not. This was my only fear, the Buccs secondary has been suspect and Kupp has been on an absolute tear. Obviously, this did not go well for us and Kupp was the only 2+ touchdowns player in the game. Well, eff you Cooper Kupp!

D) Anderson/CMC/Cooks each over 80 receiving

This had no chance to actually hit - hence the amazing odds. Definitely took a flyer and definitely hurt when CMC went down with an injury. The crazier part is that it was not as far off as it seemed. Cooks easily got his 80 yards - he finished with over 100 yards receiving. CMC was ruled out early on - but he is the last person I was worried about. Anderson was nowhere close to the 80 yard mark; however, I would take those same odds every week on Anderson. Essentially, if you think that CMC would have eventually made it - we are getting those odds on one person - which is just too good to let pass.

E) Saints -2.5/Raiders -1/Broncos -2.5

Once again, I can not believe the Saints started that game being the underdogs. Easy decision to give points away - I only wish I gave more away. The Broncos easily won - after all, it was the Jets. However, the Raiders tried to spoil everything - but they pulled it out in the end. Carr might finish the season with 6,000 yards - which would be absolutely insane. Big win here - which pushed us positive for the week.

Week 3 Running Total

Placed: $80

Profit: $49

Let's place a bet for Monday Night Football....

F) SGP: Cowboys -3.5/Prescott over 274.5 passing/Jarwin over 19.5 receiving/Lamb over 104.5 receiving, 8 receptions, anytime touchdown: $20 to win $300

The MNF bets are not in the betting card for the beginning of the week. Instead, you need to follow @FFDojoSensei for the MNF bets. Typically, MNF ends up being a SGP - but you are always free to pick and choose what to include. We will see what takes place tonight - but we are expecting big things from Lamb. He has been the focal point of the offensive attack and I look for him to have a huge night against an Eagles team that allow young speedy receivers to have big nights. Jarwin is averaging 3 targets and nearly 30 yards a game - that portion of the parlay should be a lock. Look for this parlay to either hit or miss 3 legs (Lamb).

Week 3 Profit/Loss: 

 

 

Week 3 Bets

It is time to keep this training rolling! We had a fantastic end to the 2nd week of the NFL, let's keep building on that and get completely out of the hole we dug in week 1. If you missed the last week's bet, no worries - WE ARE HITTING IT BIG THIS WEEK! 

Keep in mind though - the only way week 2 paid off was listening to the tweets from @FFDojoSensei. We tweeted out that you needed to double up on the Mahomes/Jackson week2 special - which paid off handsomely. We also hit our MNF play of Aaron Jones 2+ touchdowns. You already know this is a big week in terms of betting.... are we going to get completely out of the hole or dig a little deeper? No matter what happens - whether you join in on the fun or watch from the sidelines.... one thing is for certain: It is going to be one entertaining ride!!

Remember, these bets all take place on DraftKings Sportsbook - which also offers a 20% profit boost for each game this week. I will taking advantage of this whenever possible....

A) SGP - Panthers/Over 42.5 points/Darnold over 229.5 passing/3+ CMC receptions: $15 to win $43.50

Honestly, the only thing that scares me in this bet is the over 42.5 points. You could easily remove that portion of the parlay and feel extremely comfortable with every other portion. If Darnold is going to throw for over 230 yards... then you could easily assume that CMC is going to have at least 3 receptions. On top of that, the Texans held Baker Mayfield to 213 passing yards. This sounds bad, but keep in mind Mayfield didn't have OBJ, lost Landry, and for a good portion of the 2nd half held the lead against a team that recently lost their starting QB. The Texans will not have Tyrod Taylor this week - but they can prepare for it this time. The Panthers will look to feed CMC the ball - especially in the flats and screen area of the field and let their dynamic playmaker go to work. If this game reaches the over, this bet is as good as gold - time to finally start the week off right and hit a TNF bet! 

B) Saints -2.5/Raiders -1/Broncos -2.5: $25 to win $129.44

Let's break this bet down game by game....

Saints -2.5: Is this a gift from the bookies? I am confused, the original line is Saints +2.5 points. I get it, the Saints looked bad in week 2; but are we really going to believe that Kamara is going to have another week like that again? I mean the Patriots did face the Jets - who made that defense look a lot better than they actually are. Either I am missing something or this is just a gift to all degenerates, there is no way anyone in their right mind would think that New England should be favored in this game.

Raiders -1: I am a believer in the Raiders. They have speed on the outside (Ruggs), a smart QB (Carr), a walking mismatch (Waller). The Raiders defense is tough and aggressive and looks to get after the QB. Miami is in for a tough day, especially if Tagovailoa does play. Even he does play, this Raiders defense will be looking to knock him out of the game and then it is going to be a field day for the Raiders.

Broncos -2.5: Vonn Miller vs. Zach Wilson..... you take your pick.

C) Falcons/Giants - highest scoring game of the week: $10 to win $130

I get it, this is a sucker's bet - but hear me out. Atlanta have given up 32 and 48 points in week 1 and 2 respectively. New York have given up 27 and 30 points respectively. Neither one of these teams like to play defense. Both of these teams have enough firepower to score in the upper 30's. These are just too good of odds to pass up on a teams that give up that many points. Honestly, I think this game could finish in the top three highest scoring games of the week - if things fall right, it could finish number one - and I am willing to pay $10 to see just how many points they can score.

D) Buccs v Rams - no player score 2+ touchdowns: $15 to win $38.40

This is where I am taking advantage of the bonus 20% for each game. This is a week 3 special bet that originally sits at +130, but I boosted it to +156. There are so many weapons for both teams; I would have thought the "No" side of this bet would have been the negative juice, instead we are boosting a positive juice to make it even more juicy. Last week Gronk and Evans had multiple touchdowns, but this Los Angeles defense is much more formidable than Atlanta. Kupp had a monster game last week, but once again the Buccs defense should pose much more of a threat than what Indy was able to throw at Stafford.

E) Anderson/CMC/Cooks each over 80 receiving yards: $15 to win $465

Once again, taking advantage of the DraftKings 20% boost. This is under the hybrid players props. Don't get me wrong this is a degenerate's bet - but why not? If Darnold is going to have a big game, why not pepper CMC with checkdowns and then hit Anderson with a few bombs. Why not have Cooks catch a few garbage time receptions to get him over 80 yards? Why not make a couple 'bluefaces' on a degenerates' bet?

D) Yes, I know this is a NFL betting blog - but keep in mind, we are looking for value all over the board. This week represents something that rarely takes place. The Ryder Cup is a golf tournament between USA and Europe. The final day is played in singles matches that are scored in the format of match play. Which means that each individual hole is worth 1 point and you can either tie the hole or win it outright. The two golfers then play until one golfer has a lead too large for the other golfer to comeback and tie. However, often times this creates opportunities for golfers to end their singles match in a tie. On DraftKings, whenever possible a "tie" often times pays out large positive odds. We will be taking the last $20 from the $100 betting card and we will be placing it in a *round robin* of 6 random Ryder Cup singles matches to end in a tie. Follow @FFDojoSensei for the final play once the matchups are released.

*Round Robin: creating a betting card and betting the different combinations of possibilities to take place instead every single possibility. Example....

Round Robin Card: Events A, B, C, D, E are all bet on to win

3-bet Round Robin: ABC/ABD/ABE/ACD/ACE/ADE/BCD/BCE/BDE/CDE

4-bet Round Robin: ABCD/ABCE/ABDE/ACDE/BCDE

Each individual payout requires a bet, but you can bet as low as a .25 a scenario and still see big payouts. This is also a much easier way to place a parlay that you do not feel confident about "one leg" and still have a chance if that leg loses.

LET'S MAKE SOME MONEY!!!

Week 2 Total

There are times in life when you have to ask yourself - am I a quitter? HELL NO. I don't care if I lose every single week (actually, I would care - a lot) - I will continue to fight the good fight for all gamblers. 

In all actuality, week 2 was a good week - let me explain how....

A) NY Giants -2: Wow, this one hurt. I really thought this was going to start the week off on the right foot. From Slayton dropping a wide open touchdown all the way to the flag on the last field goal for Washington to win. It was a rough way to start the week - not a good omen. 

B) Chiefs -6/Bills -6.5/Saints -6: Obviously, this did not go as planned. It started off with the Bills absolutely trouncing the Dolphins. I stated everywhere that I would not want to be Miami having to play Buffalo after their week one let down. After that, everything went downhill fast. New Orleans continually lost players and coaches throughout the week and it was too late to back out of the bet. The only thing I could do was hope that Winston was back to his "eating W's" way - which he wasn't. Kamara had one of the worst games of his career and everything spiraled out of control from there. To follow that, the Chiefs lost in September for the first time ever in the Mahomes era. Many people will look at the Mahomes interception - but lets be real, this one is not on Mahomes. The Chiefs could not figure out a way to stop Jackson and his playmaking ability. The dude literally ran the ball right up the gut - looking like a Oklahoma drill. 

C) D. Jones over 230 passing/J. Taylor over 13 receiving: This one is on me. Jones hit the passing on TNF and I should have hedged Taylor's receiving yards. I should have locked up the guaranteed money. I am an absolute idiot. An Ignoramus. A moron. A dumbass. Clearly, Taylor did not get the needed receiving yards and this did not hit. Taylor never even really got the needed opportunities, with only one target.

Enough about the bummers, let's get to the good stuff!

D) Mahomes passing/Jackson rushing over 365 yards: This was a no brainer. Jackson rushed for more than 100 yards rushing and Mahomes had over 340 yards passing. This was locked up by the end of the 3rd quarter. The best part about this bet? If you follow @FFDojoSensei on twitter, I said that this is the bet you double down on - which we did. So in total, we placed a $50 bet to win $45 profit.

E) Aaron Jones 2+ touchdowns: Once again, if you follow @FFDojoSensei (and I am not sure why you wouldn't), I always tweet out a MNF bet. This week it was Aaron Jones 2+ touchdowns at +450. This was a smooth $25 to win $137.50. Aaron Jones was in line to have a huge game - anytime a defense with a decent secondary approaches the Packers - they use their dominate receiving back in open space. Jones made the most of his opportunity, scoring 4 touchdowns and locking up this bet before half time.

Week 2 Total: +$83

Season Total: -$33

WEEK 3 HERE WE COME!!!

Week 2 Bets

Mike Tyson once said, "There's no one that can match me. I'm just ferocious. I want your heart. I want to eat his children." WOAH!!! Now, I understand that Mikey Mike was crazy - but eating someone's kids is on a whole different level. Especially when he was never prompted to say that. The reporter asked him about his upcoming fight and he went on a rant that finished with devouring children. To say that this man was one of the scariest and dangerous men at his prime would be an understatement. Not necessarily known for his eloquence and verbose - he was essentially McGregor before McGregor was born. His brashness was admired. His bluntness was feared. His passion was striking.

Mike Tyson v 50 midgits

But what does Mike Tyson have to do with Stacking the Bet getting their ass kicked in week one? Well, Mike Tyson also said, "Everyone has a plan until the get punched in the mouth." Boy oh boy did we get punched. It is time to re-examine our approach and figure out a way to finish in the green this week. Do we need to make it all back? Certainly not, we will place a few bets that will give us that opportunity? Obviously.

Week 2 Bets

A) NY Giants -2: $25 to win $71.25 (+185)

The actual line sits at Washington -3 and we are not only taking the underdog, we are giving up points. Here is my thinking..... it is common knowledge that Vegas usually gives the home team 2-3 points. Since Washington is at home and favored by 3 points, that makes this game pretty much a toss up. Throw in the fact that Taylor Heinicke will be starting (Fitzmagic was placed on the IR) in a shortened week. We like the Giants to win this game straight up.... so why not grab a little more on the odds side and give one or two points. Don't get too crazy though, NYG still has one of the worst offensive lines and the last time I check Chase Young is still really, really good at football.

B) Mahomes passing/Jackson rushing over 365.5: $25 to win $47.72 (-110)

This is a Draftkings "Week 2 Special." You have to jump all over this... it is essentially giving you money. Mahomes is special against the blitz - he almost prefers to be blitzed. As he should - there are weapons all over this Kansas City offense and if you blitz him, he knows someone is going to be open. Baltimore loves to blitz - this smells like money. Mahomes could reach this total on his own, let alone the fact Lamar Jackson has averaged 65 yards rushing a game for his career. On top of that, Baltimore is becoming a one man show - count on Jackson to come dangerously close to 100+ yards rushing this week and lay the hammer on this special.

C) Chiefs -6.5/Bills -6.5/Saints -6: $10 to win $116.16 (+1061)

Personally, we love these teams and spreads and we would be even comfortable giving up more points. The Chiefs and Bills are going to be looking to send a message and slow starts in week one. If you wanted to bet a single game... Bills is the place to look. We are talking about a team that is projected to compete for a Super Bowl title.... who lost week one. This will be a statement game and I fear for anyone wearing a Miami Dolphin jersey this week. The Saint take on CMC and the boys - but the Carolina looked far better than they actually are in week one. The Saint defense proved the can stop an offense, if you don't believe me - ask Aaron Rodgers? This game could be a blow out by half time. Feel free to give up even more points in the latter two games.

D) D. Jones passing over 230 yards/J. Taylor over 13 receiving yards: $20 to win $69.90 (+249)

Winning $69? NNNNNIIIIIICCCCCEEEEEE. Jones is going to have plenty of opportunity to throw the ball and with Barkley still banged up - look for Jones to air it out early and often. We are far more confident in the first portion of the parlay... if you don't believe in Taylor, you can always hedge after TNF. However, Taylor should at least see 3-4 targets and that would give him a decent opportunity to reach the over. The Rams are extremely tough up front and will be shutting down the middle - which should open up the outside for easy check down passing lanes.

E) CIN Bengals -5/CIN Bengals 2+ Passing TDs: $20 to win $84 (+320)

This falls in line with DraftKings "Same Game Parlay" picks. The difficult part - if you bet on DraftKings you can not combine individual touchdown scorers ***at the time of this writing*** or other specific stats. Either way, if the Bengals are going to win this game is going to come through the arm of Burrow. Mixon is a beast in the backfield - but he is even more dangerous catching the ball in space. Look for Burrow to throw a couple touchdowns while evading the Chicago defensive rush. Let's not forget to mention.... it always safe betting against Dalton - somehow he will find a way to lose the game.

And there you have it, the $100 betting card from Stack the Bet. Don't spend all your winnings in one place you dirty degenerates!!

With Love,

Stack the Bet

Week 1 Total

In history when things turn sour and there happens to be a mob or a riot or some form of a attacks they refer to the day as "bloody." You know as in....

"Bloody Sunday" - referring to when British military opened fire on Catholic civil rights supporters in 1972

"Bloody Monday" - referring to when Protestant mobs attacked neighborhoods in Kentucky on August 6, 1855

"Bloody Tuesday" - referring to when civil rights activists were attacked in Tuscaloosa, Alabama in 1964

You. Get. The. Point.

Well, let's just say that we had our own little "Bloody Sunday" in week one. Anytime, it seemed like our bets had a little momentum moving in the right direction - something seemed to derail them. To cap things off, Stafford looked really good throwing the deep ball against the Chicago defense we thought so highly of. Here is a breakdown of what went right (nothing) and what went wrong (everything)....

Single Game Bets

A) Pittsburgh v Buffalo: Over 43.5 points

Well, the Steelers did their job. No one - and I certainly mean NO ONE - would have guessed that a Josh Allen led Buffalo offense would only score 16 points. I would make this same bet 100 times over and feel confident that it would hit over 90% of the time. 

B) Chicago v LA Rams: Chicago +4

Stafford is good... Dalton is.... well, let's just say that I would not be shocked is Fields isn't starting sooner rather than later. The Rams may have just shown that they are an NFC contender and now that Stafford has a legitimate defense and offense full of weapons, we may see his best this season.

Parlays

A) Cardinals/Vikings/Jets ML

Cardinals are good - like, really good. We know that the Titans are going to be good and we know that they were out of sync in season opener. However, Murray looked like he was playing with a mission in mind. The Vikings and the Jets obviously dropped the ball here. More blame shifts to the Vikings than the Jets. I was expecting the Vikings to win, a solid rushing attack combined with two legit wide receivers and you still can't manage to beat the Bengals. Ouch.

B) 49ers/Chiefs/Giants/Raiders ML

This one hurt. Who would have thought that Melly Mel was going to have the day he had. Ridiculous - if the Giants win, we could have hedged our bet and at least guaranteed some money on the week. And just so we are aware - here at Stacking the Bet.... WE ALWAYS HEDGE OUR BETS!!!

Player Props

A) Michael Pittman Jr. over 47.5 yards

I am not going to lie I am more shocked by this one by anything. Not was Pittman supposed to be the number one receiver - but the game pretty lended itself to Indy throwing the ball. Yet somehow, Pittman was only able to manage 4 targets. Call this guy Michael Pitiful Jr. Yeah, that wasn't good.

B) James Robinson to score 1st Touchdown 

I am hoping that everyone is as shocked by the way this game went as I am. I did not think the Texans were a good offensive football team.... and I still don't. What is there to say? Everyone in the NFL is a professional athlete. Sometimes it is just your day - today was Tyrod Taylor's day. Good for him. It cost us... but good for him.

You know, Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face." We just got punched in the face. Time decide if we are checking into fight or flight.

The.

Answer.

is.

FIGHT.

NFL Week 1 Bets

 ****This was written on Friday morning, after the Dallas/Tampa game****

Last night was an amazing start to the NFL season - a back and forth game featuring two teams that should compete for the NFC championship. Yes, the Buccs return everyone from both sides of the ball - but let's face it.... there are always holes and mismatches. Dallas showed exactly how to beat the Buccs - attack through the air.

That game is in the past.... let's make some money this week! Remember, we will be operating with a $100 budget and I will be walking us through a betting ticket that I feel represents enough reward for risk. Everything will be based on DraftKings numbers.... LET'S MAKING SOME MULAH BABAY!!!!!

Single Game Bets

A) Pittsburgh vs Buffalo: $15 on over 43.5 to win 22.50 (-200)

This is like free money... I really love this bet. Did everyone see what happened in the Dallas/Tampa game? Good offense is always going to beat good defense. Pittsburgh is equivalent to the Dallas offense - they will be throwing the ball to the outside playmakers and allowing them to work in space. Everybody loves Allen - rightfully so. He has weapons at is his disposal and is able to run. I have teased the line down to 43.5 points and lessened the payoff - but I like the bet as a nice toe dipper to start the season.

B) Chicago vs LA Rams: $10 on Chicago +4 to win 26.50 (+165)

To tell you the truth I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago finds a way to win this game. The LA Rams are good and will find themselves in the battle for top dawg in the NFC - but this is still week 1. Both these teams have a tremendous front seven and it is going to be difficult for both offenses to get settled in. This is going to be a defensive slugfest and Chicago should keep this game close all the way to the end.

Parlays

A) Cardinals/Vikings/Jets Moneyline: $15 to win $156.10 (+940)

Of the the two parlay plays, this is the riskier bet. Both the Jets and Cardinals are underdogs, but I think the represent the best value. The Cardinals are a solid team offensively and have added JJ Watt. Yes, I know Watt is out of his prime - but he does represent more value than just being on the field. He is a tremendous locker guy, that should push everyone to their highest potential. Not to mention the fact that he is very familiar with playing against Tennessee. Speaking of familiarity, the J-E-T-S face-off against former QB Sam Darnold. Look for the Jets to pull off the upset and show the NFL why they put their trust is Wilson and not Darnold. 

B) 49ers/Chiefs/Giants/Raiders Moneyline: $15 to win $171.45 (+1043)

And to think that I said the previous parlay was actually the riskier of the two.....pshhhhhhhh. You gotta have kahunas if you want to make the big bucks - but trust me, there is a process to this insanity. I really like a healthy 49ers (the Lions should absolutely awful this year) and Chiefs squad. The Chiefs represent amazing value for a team that should steamroll through the regular season. To be honest, as singular play at -260 is more of a play - but they does add value to the parlay in a game that you really shouldn't have to worry about. The New York Giants are an interesting team. I have spoken about my inability to necessarily trust Barkley in week 1 - but I do trust Jones and his receivers. Who I really don't trust? Anyone on the offensive side of the ball for Denver. The only reason Courtland Sutton was even fantasy relevant last season was garbage time receptions. Personally, I think NYG are the better team in the matchup and thus DK is just begging you to include them in any parlay. The riskier play is throw in the Raiders at the end of the week. Hear me out.... one team has been ravaged with injuries. One team has lost nearly every RB that was on the active roster - although Jackson is pretty much the running back for this team. If you don't feel comfortable about the Raiders and this parlay has made it to MNF - just hedge the best and throw a little on Baltimore to secure your profits - easy money.

Player Props

A) Michael Pittman Jr. over 47.5 yards: $35 to win $65.43 (-115)

If you want free money, put the hammer down here. Hilton is out - this offense is going to be flowing through Jonathan Taylor on the ground and Pittman Jr. in the air. Anywhere you can find better odds take this - there is a reason why I am betting the big money on Pittman Jr. to be highly involved in the offense. I do think that Taylor will be the focal point of the offense - but if you are really going to try and convince me that the number one receiver is not going to have enough opportunity to surpass 47 yards.... you must outside ya mind!

B) James Robinson to score the 1st touchdown: $10 to win $80 (+700)

James Robinson is a player that should be highly involved in the offense down in Jacksonville. Etienne is now sidelined and Robinson has complete control of the backfield. Jacksonvilles plays the Houston Texans - which may be the worst roster in the NFL. Robinson represents the best player on the field, on the better team, in a position to touch the ball early and often. Yes, this is a riskier bet - 1st touchdown scorers always are - but why not throw a little cheddah on a player that will get plenty of opportunity. 

LET'S. MAKE. SOME. MONEY.

Bless

Sensei