NFL Week 1 Bets

 ****This was written on Friday morning, after the Dallas/Tampa game****

Last night was an amazing start to the NFL season - a back and forth game featuring two teams that should compete for the NFC championship. Yes, the Buccs return everyone from both sides of the ball - but let's face it.... there are always holes and mismatches. Dallas showed exactly how to beat the Buccs - attack through the air.

That game is in the past.... let's make some money this week! Remember, we will be operating with a $100 budget and I will be walking us through a betting ticket that I feel represents enough reward for risk. Everything will be based on DraftKings numbers.... LET'S MAKING SOME MULAH BABAY!!!!!

Single Game Bets

A) Pittsburgh vs Buffalo: $15 on over 43.5 to win 22.50 (-200)

This is like free money... I really love this bet. Did everyone see what happened in the Dallas/Tampa game? Good offense is always going to beat good defense. Pittsburgh is equivalent to the Dallas offense - they will be throwing the ball to the outside playmakers and allowing them to work in space. Everybody loves Allen - rightfully so. He has weapons at is his disposal and is able to run. I have teased the line down to 43.5 points and lessened the payoff - but I like the bet as a nice toe dipper to start the season.

B) Chicago vs LA Rams: $10 on Chicago +4 to win 26.50 (+165)

To tell you the truth I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago finds a way to win this game. The LA Rams are good and will find themselves in the battle for top dawg in the NFC - but this is still week 1. Both these teams have a tremendous front seven and it is going to be difficult for both offenses to get settled in. This is going to be a defensive slugfest and Chicago should keep this game close all the way to the end.

Parlays

A) Cardinals/Vikings/Jets Moneyline: $15 to win $156.10 (+940)

Of the the two parlay plays, this is the riskier bet. Both the Jets and Cardinals are underdogs, but I think the represent the best value. The Cardinals are a solid team offensively and have added JJ Watt. Yes, I know Watt is out of his prime - but he does represent more value than just being on the field. He is a tremendous locker guy, that should push everyone to their highest potential. Not to mention the fact that he is very familiar with playing against Tennessee. Speaking of familiarity, the J-E-T-S face-off against former QB Sam Darnold. Look for the Jets to pull off the upset and show the NFL why they put their trust is Wilson and not Darnold. 

B) 49ers/Chiefs/Giants/Raiders Moneyline: $15 to win $171.45 (+1043)

And to think that I said the previous parlay was actually the riskier of the two.....pshhhhhhhh. You gotta have kahunas if you want to make the big bucks - but trust me, there is a process to this insanity. I really like a healthy 49ers (the Lions should absolutely awful this year) and Chiefs squad. The Chiefs represent amazing value for a team that should steamroll through the regular season. To be honest, as singular play at -260 is more of a play - but they does add value to the parlay in a game that you really shouldn't have to worry about. The New York Giants are an interesting team. I have spoken about my inability to necessarily trust Barkley in week 1 - but I do trust Jones and his receivers. Who I really don't trust? Anyone on the offensive side of the ball for Denver. The only reason Courtland Sutton was even fantasy relevant last season was garbage time receptions. Personally, I think NYG are the better team in the matchup and thus DK is just begging you to include them in any parlay. The riskier play is throw in the Raiders at the end of the week. Hear me out.... one team has been ravaged with injuries. One team has lost nearly every RB that was on the active roster - although Jackson is pretty much the running back for this team. If you don't feel comfortable about the Raiders and this parlay has made it to MNF - just hedge the best and throw a little on Baltimore to secure your profits - easy money.

Player Props

A) Michael Pittman Jr. over 47.5 yards: $35 to win $65.43 (-115)

If you want free money, put the hammer down here. Hilton is out - this offense is going to be flowing through Jonathan Taylor on the ground and Pittman Jr. in the air. Anywhere you can find better odds take this - there is a reason why I am betting the big money on Pittman Jr. to be highly involved in the offense. I do think that Taylor will be the focal point of the offense - but if you are really going to try and convince me that the number one receiver is not going to have enough opportunity to surpass 47 yards.... you must outside ya mind!

B) James Robinson to score the 1st touchdown: $10 to win $80 (+700)

James Robinson is a player that should be highly involved in the offense down in Jacksonville. Etienne is now sidelined and Robinson has complete control of the backfield. Jacksonvilles plays the Houston Texans - which may be the worst roster in the NFL. Robinson represents the best player on the field, on the better team, in a position to touch the ball early and often. Yes, this is a riskier bet - 1st touchdown scorers always are - but why not throw a little cheddah on a player that will get plenty of opportunity. 

LET'S. MAKE. SOME. MONEY.

Bless

Sensei