Week 5 Bets

 Week 5 Bets

A) Titans ML/Steelers ML/JetsvFalcons over 46: $20 to win $105

So far, we have found some rhythm in winning weeks and it based around confident prop bets and three and four game parlays. I truly can not see the Titans dropping two straight games to the Jets and Jaguars respectively. Also, let's not forget the fiasco that is happening in Jacksonville - Titans should be heavy betting favorites by the time this game kicks off. Steelers is sneaky - but super easy - pick in this matchup against the Denver Broncos. You will see this game featured in a few other bets for this week's betting card - mainly because Bridgewater's status is in doubt as he going through the concussion protocol. Which means the nasty defense of Pittsburgh is going to get to go after Drew Lock? Yikes. The last game features two teams that notoriously do not play defense that well. The Jets just scored 27 points against Tennessee and the Falcons scored 30 points against Washington - Washington and Tennesse pose much more of threat than Atlanta and New York. The only thing going against this game is the travel across the pond - which has historically showcased some bad offensive football (that might be more on the fact that the Jaguars are a team that typically plays in London).

B) TNF SGP... Wilson Over 254 passing/Stafford over 275 passing/Metcalf 5+ receptions/Metcalf 70+ yards receiving/Over 20 point each team/Over 5 points each team 1H/Wilson to score a touchdown: $10 to win $160

In all reality, this is the best Thursday Night Football game we have had in a while. I am looking for these offenses to put on a show. In fact, the Rams are notorious for being high scoring battles on TNF. With that being said, look for the quarterbacks to make this game about them. Most of these bets are fairly easy to accomplish. Wilson and Stafford should be able to easily reach their passing yardage and Metcalf should be able to get his 5 receptions for 70 yards (his average for the year). The point totals should pose no threat - essentially this bet comes down to whether or not Wilson can get into the endzone using his feet. If you remove that portion of the bet - you are looking at odds around +320, which isn't bad... but why not throw a chance that Wilson scrambles and gets a touchdown? Why not? 

C) Steelers -1/Raiders ML/Cowboys ML/Colts +6.5: $20 to win $140

Let's break this down....

I) Steelers -1 - as stated earlier in bet "A," this should be a well featured game on betting cards.

II) Raiders ML - The Raiders are actually a really good team and I don't see them losing two in row. Not to mention, they are back home and facing a Chicago Bears team that just lost their starting RB (Montgomery was having a fantastic year). Look for Derek Carr and goth stare down to take control early and bounce back after their MNF loss.

III) Cowboys ML - The Cowboys are at home against the NY Giants. In a game that I expect to be very high scoring, I am looking for Prescott to outshine Jones. Barkley is finally getting everything together, but I am searching for a reason to pick the Giants and I just can't find one. The Cowboys are just better at every position on the offensive side of the ball - literally every position.

IV) Colts +6.5 - This would the hedge portion of the bet. Last week, we had to hedge but took terrible odds on our hedge. This week we are going to bet the spread, which will help the hedge aspect when we get to MNF.

D) Falcons -3.5/Packers -3/Titans -4.5/Steelers -3/Washington -3/Ravens -6.5: $20 to win $1521

Once again, let's break it down...

I) Falcons -3.5: I actually like the Falcons a lot in this game. I understand that the Jets just beat the Titans, but there is something to be said about experience and traveling. This game has the largest amount of travel a team can face and the Falcons have experienced players who have been in big situations. Look for experience to shine in this one.

II) Packers -3: I love Rodgers and the boys in a game where the Bengals might missing Joe Mixon. The Packers should have no trouble with the Bengals defense and Burrow is gonna find out that Green Bay is not Jacksonville and will have trouble finding as many openings to throw the ball down field.

III) Titans -4.5: This is the Jaguars. Have you paid attention to the news? Urban Meyer is getting lap dances by blondes that aren't his wife or his quarterback. The Jaguars are giving obnoxious amounts offensive yardage to the opposing teams. A team facing the Jaguars should be a lock every single week.

IV) Steelers -3: If you haven't caught on yet, this is a big game for our card this week.

V) Washington -3: I think that Washington has a legitimate chance to upset the Saints. We are talking about a team that is reeling from losing in overtime to the New York Giants. On top of that, Washington is at home and the have a tough defensive front. Look for Chase Young to get after Winston and force him into old habits - throwing the ball into trouble. This could be a game where A. Gibson finally gets to shine and show us what he can really do.

VI) Ravens -6.5: Remember the hedge portion of the previous bet. This is a hedge without actually being a true hedge. Can you imagine if both of these parlays are live going into MNF? I mean why not?

E) Aaron Rodgers over 262 passing yards: $25 to win $46

For the record Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 261 yards. With that being said, he has faced San Fransisco, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and New Orleans. Outside of the awful game against New Orleans - the other three matchups are not in his favor. Cincy is none of those teams when it comes secondaries. They did just give up over 200 yards to Trevor Lawrence... and he lost one his best downfield receivers in the first quarter.

F) Bucs/Pats/Vikings/Raiders/Cowboys/Cardinals/Titans/Ravens all ML: $5 to win $51

Will this happen? Probably not. I have simply selected the heavier favorites to win outright - I figured I only $5 left for this week's betting card so why not throw them together to see what I can get the odds up to for a nice hit if the favorites pull through (as they should).

Be Beautiful and let's make some MULAH!!