Week 16 Betting Card

Hopefully, you stayed the course with us this past week - after hitting the TNF SGP and then hitting on the one of our parlays we had a nice return. It is time to keep the good times rolling and see if we can't finish this NFL season out strong. We are nearing the time when the concept of this blog will adjust to arbitrage betting....

Arbitrage Betting: Betting both sides of the outcome and making money no matter what.

Essentially, it is hedging a bet before the "event" takes places. Anyways, I digress - we still have time and few weeks left in this season - let's get rolling! I won't waste your time... let's get to the money making...

A) TNF SGP: Kittle TD/Foreman TD/ Foreman over 49 rushing/Aiyuk over 44 receiving/Kittle over 79 receiving: $10 to win $180

    Let's keep the good times rolling and feed on the TNF SGP. Kittle has been turning it on lately and should get plenty of looks in the redzone. Foreman is filling in nicely for King Henry and will be in line to see a few goal to go handoffs. On top of that Foreman should also see 15+ carries... which is a good recipe for 49+ rushing yards. On top of Kittle's touchdown we need him to keep being the target monster that he is and reel in some receptions to the tune of 79+ receiving yards. Aiyuk should be the wide receive number one with Mitchell out and San Fran more than likely giving Samuel a lot of looks out of the backfield. Hopefully, we won't have to wait until the very last drive in regulation to celebrate the big win this week!

B) D. Foreman over 46 rushing yards/J. Jacobs over 53 rushing yards/Saints ML: $20 to win $113

    I) Foreman should easily surpass that total... he is averaging 88 yards a game the past 3 games and has yet to fail to reach that mark.

    II) Jacobs is a little closer to the mark that is given. He should see 15-20 carries this week and the Raiders have to know that their best offense is through him and the play-action. If he hits, look for the hedge bet on the MNF game.

    III) Saints represent a perfect opportunity to hedge. We are getting back to our old ways and going to leave the Saints game on many different parlays in order to represent a nice hedge for multiple parlays.

C) Buccs/Chargers/Chiefs/Cowboys/Saints ML: $20 to win $74

    As you can tell a lot of these teams are favorites (heavy favorites). However, when coupled together you can get some pretty good positive juice going. On top of being heavy favorites - they are all vying for playoff seedings and division titles. Remember, "Hungry Wolves Run Harder" - we will be betting on the hungry wolves.

D) 49ers/Packers/Colts/Buccs/Chargers/Bills/Bengals/Falcons/Rams/Jets/Eagles/Seahawks/Raiders/Chiefs/Cowboys/Saints All -1: $5 to win $3,700

If we are being real - we have actually been far closer to hitting the big bet than what I ever would have imagined. We have had multiple attempts come within 2 or 3 games. If you have the bankroll, I would Round Robin this and bet on the 12-team outcomes. Here is how the breakdown follows...

Games we feel good about: Packers/Buccs/Chargers/Eagles/Cowboys

Games that we feel good about, but need examined: 49ers/Rams/Falcons/Seahawks/Chiefs/Saints

       

        A) 49ers - should win, but they are the visiting team and both teams are fighting for division or playoffs berths

        B) Rams - one of the most talented teams on paper, visiting team and the Vikings need to win

        C) Falcons - playing the Lions, home team, but can you ever trust the Falcons?

        D) Seahawks - home team, playing the Bears - but the Bears did move the ball well last week

        E) Chiefs - AFC favorite, home team, Steelers have a good defense and can shock anyone

        F) Saints - home team, both teams are fighting for playoff spot

Games that are iffy: Colts/Bills/Bengals/Jets/Raiders

        A) Colts - One of the hottest teams in the NFL, terrific defense - visiting a reeling Cards

        B) Bills - Visiting Patriots, huge game for division - but there isn't 50 mph winds

        C) Bengals - Need to win to stay alive in the playoffs, home team against divisional rival

        D) Raiders - Home team against divisional rival, need to win to keep playoff hopes alive

E) Colts/Chargers/Bengals/Bills/Jets/Raiders all -7: $40 to win $14,000

    Alright, so here is what we did.... we bet $10 on the parlay for all of these to hit. Then we we bet $5 on every 5-team outcome to hit. If When they all hit we win $14,000... if 5 of the outcomes hit we win anywhere from $850 to $2,100 (depending on which ones hit). We went with teams that we thought were getting lines that were drastically in their favor and then we took where the game could realistically end around....

    I) Colts - One of the hottest teams in the NFL, Cards are without Hopkins and struggled against Detroit

    II) Chargers - face the Texans and are fighting to stay alive in the division race

    III) Bengals - If Huntley plays, this could be a steal!
    IV) Bills - I truly do not think the Patriots are better and I think that Allen and Diggs are out for blood

    V) Jets - The Jags might secretly be playing for the number one overall pick... disaster season

    VI) Raiders - Remember Hungry Wolves?

That puts us in for this week at $95 dollars... let's keep the good times rolling!