Week 6 Bets

Awwww dang, last week was dangerously close to being a huuuuuge week. I am talking massive week. We narrowly missed the ability to hedge a $1500 dollar bet and also missed a MNF SGP 150-1 bet by 7 more yards from Jonathan Taylor. That is when you know you are close - when you have a 4-week winning streak and was dangerously close to hitting a homer run. This was a real conversation that was had during the Monday Night Football game....

"Honey, this has a legitimate chance to hit and make for a big payoff."

"Ohhh okay, I don't care."

"It would be $1500."

"Yeah, that's cool."

LIKE WHAT?!?!?!? I get not trying to get excited only to be let down. I get not trying to jinx yourself halfway through the game. I even get not wanting to watch and deal with the anxiety. BUT TO NOT EVEN CARE?!?! How about a little something for the effort. How about a little acknowledgement for what was almost achieved. We are talking about hitting 9 legs out of 10 leg parlay in the same game. You know what that means? That nearly perfectly predicting the exact players that were going to have a huge game. To be honest, the 10 leg was even closer than it appeared considering Taylor's final run consisted of a 4 yard loss. Ohhh well, we will take positive weeks every single time and we finished positive and we are going to keep that train rolling into this week.....

Week 6 Bets

A) TNF SGP: Buccs ML/Reagor over 19 receiving yards/Sanders under 49 rushing yards: $15 to win $33

This should be a sweat free bet - although any time you bet the under you will have to sweat it out the entire game. The Buccs are pretty much a lock to win - so that portion should be taken care of. The idea is that the game script will be in favor of a passing game for the Eagles and Reagor should have plenty of opportunity to reach the over. If I were to really throw something together I may even throw Smith in with receptions and yards. The Buccs have a nasty front for defense and a weak secondary. Look for lots of passing plays to be scripted and then a majority of the rushing yards to come from Hurts scrambling.

B) Chiefs -2/Packers -2/Steelers -2: $15 to win $49

I) Chiefs have looked like an absolute mess - but are we really going to think that they can't pull it together and bet Taylor Heinicke. I mean, come on, we are talking about Patrick Mahomes - who has his back against the wall. You could easily give up more points if you really wanted - Mahomes is going to have a big game (with or without Hill).

II) Packers face the Chicago Bears. We all know that Aaron Rodgers does not want to hand over the reigns in this rivalry just yet. There will be a day when Rodgers has to pass the baton  - but in no way am I going to bet that the day is now. Rodgers is about to show up and show the entire city of Chicago that daddy still wears a green jersey.

III) Steelers have been given back-to-back gifts. Last week they got to face off against the Denver Broncos and a banged up Teddy Bridgewater. This week? They will be going against backup quarterback Geno Smith. This is another one of those safe bets that we will be looking to help carry the load to a positive week as we swing for the fences on a few others.

C) Lawrence and Robinson 2+ rushing tds/L. Jackson over 75 rushing yards and Herbert over 300 passing yards/D. Adams and A. Jones over 300 combined rushing and receiving yards: $20 Round Robin

For those that are not familiar with a "round robin," it just adds another layer of betting that allows for a parlay to still pay out something. You build a ticket of outcomes and then place multiples bets that are still viable to payout if one leg fails. In this bet, we placed 3 separate 2-leg bets and a full 3-leg parlay bet. These bets all come from the DraftKings Weekly Specials...

I) Lawrence and Robinson have been running tremendous the past two weeks. When in the red zone Jacksonville loves to operate through play-action reads which allow Lawrence to either hand the ball off or keep himself and try and make a play. These two will definitely have the opportunity to score and put show on for London against Miami's defense - in a game that Jacksonville may have a chance to win.

II) A perfect game plan for both teams feature Jackson making plays with his legs and Herbert breaking down defenses. Baltimore just gave up over 400 passing to Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor had over 100 yards receiving - what do you think Herbert is going to do to them with Ekeler and Allen? 

III) Adams and Jones represent 80% of the offense for Green Bay. If Green Bay is able to have a replicate the same exact game plan this week as it played out last week - this bet will hit. Is Chicago's defense better than Cincy's? Obviously. Does Green Bay want to come out and make a statement win inside the division? You betcha. Will that come through Adams and Jones? Here's hoping.

D) This bet is put better with pictures: $10 to win $26,000

    

If not us, then who??? This is a 12-leg parlay - one of those that you read about on twitter and think, "Man, that would be nice." Here is your chance, let's break down some of the closer bets....

I) Vikings have a legitimate chance to run away with this matchup. This will either go one of two ways, Vikings run away with it or it is a close battle. Detroit will not have the possibility of running away of this. Which means 2 of the 3 possibilities have a high chance of ending in the Vikings favor.

II) Herbert is 100 times better than Wentz. Allen is 100 times better than Pittman. The Chargers have a chance to make a statement in AFC with a big win over Baltimore. Look for LAC to really flex their muscles and send a message that they might be the favorite and not Buffalo.

III) I get it, the Raiders are a "mess" right now. But that shouldn't matter when you have that ferocious defense bearing down on Bridgewater. The Steelers front gave a game plan for what needs to take place in order to slow down the Denver offense. The Raiders defense loves to blitz and turn up the heat on opposing quarterbacks. Look for the Raiders to make a statement win in the wake of the Gruden firing.

IV) Jaguars and Dolphins play in London - historically teams have struggled across the pond. Combine that with two teams that are already struggling offensively. 

V) The Arizona Cardinals are undefeated and are flying high with Murray having a MVP caliber season. This is a tough game, but I can't turn down the opportunity to flip the line and give points while taking the undefeated "underdog."

E) Ekeler over 39 receiving yards/Fields over 12 rushing yards/McLaurin over 5 receptions/Sutton over 4 receptions: $20 to win $175

I) The Chargers were shown the way to attack the Baltimore defense on Monday Night Football - easy check down receptions with the running back. He is averaging just over 5 targets a game and just under 40 yards a game. This includes week 1 when he had zero targets, the opportunity will be there and Ekeler should make the most of it, possibly covering he needed yardage by halftime.

II) Fields is going to be in a position where he will be dropping back often against the Green Bay defense. Eventually, he will need to scramble and pick up needed yardage for first downs near the end of the game. The Bears prefer to pound the ball - but with a negative game script (meaning they should be down) Fields will have opportunity to roll out and pick up needed yardage.

III) McLaurin is in a game that could be high scoring and Kansas City has shown that they can not stop anyone on the defensive side of the ball. Washington will also be in a negative game script - McLaurin should have 10+ targets and could easily cover the receptions by halftime.

IV) Sutton is far and away the best receiver that Denver readily has for this game. Jeudy is still on the IR and Fant will need to stay on the line to help protect Bridgewater. Which means that Sutton will get plenty of looks and the targets will be there.

D) Richard Sherman over 4.5 Tackles + Assists/TJ Watt over 3.5 Tackles + Assists: $20 to win $90

Opposing offense have attacked Sherman and the secondary and tried to stay away from the defense front of Tampa Bay. Sherman is averaging 5 solo tackles a game - which may have been the smarter bet, just taking the solo tackles at 3.5. I firmly believe the ball will be thrown on Sherman's side of the field often and I also firmly believe Sherman has lost a step when it comes to staying with receivers. This creates an opportunity for Sherman's receiver to catch the ball and then be tackled. Watt is a terror on the defensive side of the ball and the Seahawk might be looking to take the ball out of Smith's hands and attempt to pound it. This should create opportunity for Watt to get plenty of tackles - and all we were really want is opportunity. Watt is a great defender and when you give great players opportunities - they tend to make great things happen.

LET'S KEEP THIS TRAIN ROLLING AND MAKE SOME MONEY!!