Week 12 Betting Card

We have now experienced the perfect haircut of betting. It is a common phenomenon and unless you can really take advantage of the few weeks - it is difficult to finish on top (which we still are). Here is what I mean....

When a person gets a haircut they go through phases: the too obvious phase, the just right phase, the time for a new haircut phase. A brand new haircut is not necessarily something that you want noticed - you want people to notice you, but not your hair. Most of the time the haircut is too short and people notice that. Sometimes, the lines are quite right and people notice that. Sometime, if you dye it, your dye is just slightly off. Either way, when you get a new haircut - people notice what is wrong with the haircut far more often than what is right. This is the first phase of betting - you begin to realize what you did you wrong. You have lessons that need learned and you begin to adjust your style of betting. 

Then you hit that phase of the haircut where everything is flowing just right. The hair has grown out a little bit, it doesn't look like you are trying to hard - it looks the way it was intended to look. This is the phase when you are most attractive and you feel the most confident. This is the betting phase you really need to take advantage of - get most of your money in during this phase. Luckily, our phase lasted for a large portion of the season - nearly 8 weeks. 

Then you hit the overgrown phase - your hair is too long and all you can think about is how you need a haircut. We are currently in (hopefully finished) the overgrown phase. We still have a little bit of confidence from the "just right" phase - but we it is unjustly placed because we have "scored" so well that we think we can score on almost any thing. Nope, we are overgrown and we need to make an adjustment.

Time to restart the phases.... except you live and you learn and you adjust the way your hair gets cut and you make sure you skip the "too new" phase. Typically, as a bettor you have two options - we are now up only 7$ - you could slow down and try and place smart bets or you can continue the trend and say "shooters shoot." We are shooters, we will continue shooting...

Betting Card

A)  SGP: Dalton over 150 passing/Swift over 20 receiving/Mooney over 40 receiving/Bears -2.5: $20 to win $74

Let's be honest, I have thrown together a few pretty good looking bets - which should always be the case, right? Dalton should easily surpass this number... he came into the week 11 game and still threw for more than 200 yards. Swift should see plenty of opportunity in a game that could feature plenty of checkdowns and neither team running away with the game. With Dalton at quarterback, Mooney will see far more targets than with Fields - who also loved to run. On top of all that... this is a game that the Bears need to win - look for them to lock this up by at a field goal... let's just hope it doesn't come down to a field goal, we know how good Chicago has been at kicking in the past!

B) Bills -3/Cowboys -3: $20 to win $45

This is a tough bet because we don't know the status of Lamb. However, I like to think that the Cowboys still have plenty of other weapons to utilize against a weak Las Vegas defense. Not to mention the Raiders have been a complete mess this year. The Bills represent amazing value and you could realistically take them -10... they are going to be angry about what happened to them in week 11. Not a good week to be the Saints.

C) Steelers -2.5/Jags -2/Wash -1: $20 to win $252

I) Steelers are team that has plenty of weapons and good defense. They should welcome back Fitzpatrick and Watt this week and always play division rivals tough. They enter this game as the underdog and therefore provide tremendous value when you take the alternate spread.

II) Jaguars are team that is coming off the bye - which means they have plenty of time to prepare for the Falcons. The Falcons have lost their top two receivers from last season and Pitts is a boom-or-bust type player. I am not saying Jacksonville has the same defense that New England does, but an entire week of preparation sure can help.

III) Washington represent great value for the hedge portion of this bet. They are playing at home and if the line doesn't change then Seattle would be a tremendous betting option come Monday.

D) BIG BET ALERT: Bears -3/Cowboys -3/Bills -3/Steelers -3/Eagles -3.5/Jags -3/Texans -3/Chargers -3/Rams -3/Browns -3/Wash -3: $5 to win $21,000

First off, I was actually shocked at how much the payout was?!?! This bet does not seem that outlandish. To begin with 7 of the 11 matchups involve favorites. Then the underdogs...

I) Steelers: See Bet "C"

II) Jags: See Bet "C"

III) Rams: The Rams are coming off a bye week and will now be looking for a statement win against a top-level team in the NFC. Not to mention, Rodgers is dealing with a "very painful" toe injury.

IV) Browns: I said it last week when I predicted that Indianapolis had the perfect recipe to defeat the Buffalo Bills (strong run game and good defense). The Browns have that same recipe and Baltimore is missing their top WR.

V) Washington: We are cashing out if we get to this point.

E) Same lineup as the BIG BET: $33 to win $346

We took the same lineup as the "Big Bet" and we bet .20 on every 3-leg combo. Which means, if we can hit 6/11 picks we will get 20 combinations - if we hit 7/11 picks we will get 35 combinations - if we hit 8/11 picks we will get 56 combinations. The magic number is 7, but with round robin - we are able to salvage some of the bet back if everything goes awry.

Time to make some money and change lives!!!

Week 11 Betting Card

Remember back in week 1... when we lost every single bet we placed.... yeah that was not a good feeling. But look at what happened the following weeks - we went on a heater!! The following 8 weeks we profited over 61 units. There are very few betting cards that can boost that kind of number. We are now in familiar territory.... big loss in week 10.... not a good feeling.

TIME TO RUN IT BACK UP BABAY!!

Betting Card

A) Packers -9.5/Ravens -9.5/49ers -9.5/Eagles -9.5/Cardinals -9.5/Buccs ML: $5 to win $1,093

Outlandish? Possibly. But check this stat out...

Over 50% of the total NFL games played this far have finished in a double digit victory (75 out of the possible 149 games). On top of that, only one week has ended with less than six games at less than double digits and seven of the 10 weeks have had seven or more games end in a double digit margin. May the odds be ever in our favor...

I) Packers v Vikings: Aaron Rodgers is about to prove a point and stick it to the NFL - which is something he loves doing. Rodgers and Adams have torched the Vikings in the past and will continue do so until he begins telling people that their answer needs to be in question form.

II) Ravens v Bears: Who wants to play the Ravens after they were just man-handled by the dolphins? Who wants to play the Ravens after they get 10 days to prepare? Who really thinks the Bears have a chance of keeping this close? The answer to all three... "Not Me."

III) 49ers v Jaguars: The 49ers showed that they can score any a variety of ways.... and against any defense. Deebo Samuel might be the most elusive player in the NFL and Kittle has awakened and this offense is beginning take control of games.

IV) Eagles v Saints: This is the game that we are really betting on. This is the game that will be our sweat. I am just banking on the Philly defense to be able to stop the run game of New Orleans. When that happens, T-Dog will have to throw the ball and that is when Philly needs to take advantage.

V) Cardinals v Seahawks: Murray and Hopkins return and put a punctuation on the division with a big win against a healthy Seahawks team. The Cardinals and Rams are all-in this season and in order for that to take place they must beat the teams they are suppose to beat.... i.e. the Seahawks.

VI) Buccaneers v Giants: This is designed to be a hedge or cash out portion of the bet. But let's be honest... anybody doubting Brady after the brutal loss last week?

B) Diggs receiving + Taylor rushing 175+ yards/Harris + Ekeler 200+ total yards/Buccs ML: $20 to win $101

I) Taylor is playing like a man on fire... averaging over 100 yards rushing per game in the past 5 weeks. Diggs is averaging 89 yards a game. Do the math... we win.

II) Let's do the same... Harris is averaging 120 yards from scrimmage and Ekeler is averaging 87 yards from scrimmage (and he was dealing with a hip injury). Once again.... math works... we win.

III) GOAT vs Giants - easy money.

C) Patriots/Ravens/49ers/Buccaneers/Titans ML: $10 to win $39

These are all favorites that give us good odds and should be able to easily take care of business. Obviously, this is the NFL and you just never know what could happen - but I like to think this is the safest bet we have on the card. Disregard what happened last week... we can't change our style based upon one outlier. This is a bet that we can count on 9 times out of 10 and we already lost our one time last week, which means we are safe to hit this for the next 9 weeks, right? RIGHT? RIGHT? RIGHT?

D) TNF SGP... Pitts TD/Meyers TD/Henry TD/Ryan over 200 passing/Henry over 15 receiving/Meyers over 40 receiving/Pitts over 50 receiving: $15 to win $390

Shooters gotta shoot.... this could be the week we start off with a banger of a SGP hit! Pitts is due for a big game after last week's dud. Meyers and Henry having been cooking and are the main focal points of the offense through the air. When this hits, yes - I said WHEN, we will be looking for our big week to continue rolling! When you tail and place this bet you are really only watching a few players - Meyers/Henry/Pitts. The touchdowns are the big things, the yards should be extremely easy for the players to cover. The redzone will be the sweat zone for this bet - but hey, we gotta make weight for wrestling match - let's get a good sweat going!

E) BIG BET.... All Moneyline... Patriots/Colts/Ravens/Titans/Packers/49ers/Panthers/Dolphins/Eagles/Browns/Bengals/Cowboys/Cardinals/Chargers/Buccaneers: $5 to win $6,500

You already know this is going to hit - how could it not? I mean sure the Bills are great - but the Colts have the perfect recipe to beat them. Pound the ball and keep it out of the Allen's hands. Hell, if the Jacksonville Jaguars can do it - the Indianapolis Colts can as well. There is no hotter team than the Dallas Cowboys - is Prescott and the boys going to send a message that Mahomes is not the only golden child of the NFL. Will America's team take back the crown? Dallas v Kansas City is a possible Super Bowl preview and if we are still alive after the 1 o'clock games... it will be one really fun sweat!

F) Packers -4/Saints -3/Cardinals -5/Dolphins -7/Falcons +3/Bengals -4.5: $44.50 to win just under $800

Alright, here is the plan - this is 6 different alternate spreads that I really like in terms of matchups and odds value. I didn't throw-in any type of hedge bet or cash out because this is a Round Robin style bet. Meaning....

I bet .15 cents on every 2-game leg and 4-game leg. I only bet this amount so I could stay below the betting card limit. If you can't bet within your limits, you push yourself to the edge of losing it all.

I bet $2 on every 3-leg parlay - this is where the payout is. If we hit 3 games, we end fairly close to even. 

If we hit 4 games... we hit our 4-game parlay, (4) 3-game parlays, (6) 2-game parlays.

If we hit 5 games... we hit (5) 4-game parlays, (10) 3-game parlays, (10) 2-game parlays.

If we hit all 6 games.... we win close to $800 - just getting ready for the big payoff!!!

Time to rebound from the bad beat last week and fill that bankroll back up!

Week 10 Results

Wellllllllllllllll.............. shhhhhhhiiiiiiiiittttttttttt. We hit our 2nd major loss week. The beautiful thing about losing in week after winning the previous eight weeks? We are still up. Not gonna lie, still sucks to lose.... but just gotta stay focused on the bigger picture and keep moving forward. Let's just skip all the bullshit and move on to the results so I can get my head on right and find us some winners next week.....

A) Browns -2/Steelers ML/Eagles -2/LAR -3.5: Lost $20

First off, are the New England Patriots actually good????? I think it was just a matter of when it rains, it pours. I am not worried about the Browns - it does hurt that they were one of the games I focused on for building parlays. Let's not even talk about that awful Tie for the Steelers/Lions game. That is one thing that the NFL has completely wrong - how can that be allowed? Take a page out of the college book and let them run it back until we have a winner. Nobody like kissing your sister!!

B) SGP TNF: Lost $10

We are going to hit one of these and it going to carry the good vibes into the week. When we hit the SGP, you better believe we are going to have a big week. Hell, let's just hit it next week.... why not?

C) Lawrence+Taylor/Swift+Harris/Kelce+Waller/L. Jackson: Lost $20

Brutal, just effin brutal. You look at the names on this list and you think, "How did this not hit?" I have no clue. I am blaming Lamar Jackson - starting the week off on a sour taste. Swift and Harris manage to hit their mark and yet could even decide on a winner. Lawrence dropped the ball when it came to passing yardage and Kelce and Waller came within 7 yards of their mark. All because Lamar set the week up to be a failure.

D) Big Bet: Lost $5

Yup.... not surprised. I am going to keep swinging away though. Why not? If you are pitcher in the MLB - why not swing your heart out? You don't actually want to run the bases, try and hit homerun or strikeout and get back the dugout.

E) LAR -7/Chiefs -7/LAC -7/Browns -7: Lost $20

Ironically, I actually like this style of betting. I think that this has just as much of a chance to hit as any other bets. I am going to be examining alternative spreads for the rest of the season and find games that I really like the team that has a close line and then take a larger spread - get those odds boosted up there!

F) Andrews 5+ receptions/Pitts 5+ receptions/Firkser 2+ receptions: Lost $15

Andrews did his job!!! Not surprised, he is central focal point in the passing game. The crazier part is that both Pitts and Firkser went the entire 2nd half with not even a target. NOT EVEN A TARGET. Both were one reception away at halftime and didn't even get a chance in the 2nd half - that is when you know you were destine to lose.

G) Ravens/Buccaneers/Bills/Colts/Steelers/Cowboys/Cardinals/Rams ML: Lost $10

You want to know just how goofy the NFL was this week? These are all heavy favorites - we are talking 8 points or more favorites. At least half of these teams didn't even win, let alone cover the spread. DIDN'T EVEN WIN!! I would be embarrassed to be a team in this list and couldn't some how find a way to win. Goofy. Just goofy.

Week 10: -$100

Season: +$107

Time to start researching and finding those hidden nuggets! 

Week 10 Betting Card

Do you know what's not sexy? Stacking consistent winning weeks one after the next. Will it get us famous in the Twitter-verse? Nah. Will we blow up virally? Nope. Did we achieve our goal? You bet your sweet ass we did. Last week, a few of our bets played exactly as we thought they would and we were able to place a hedge bet for MNF and guarantee ourselves a nice profit. Not only that, but the hedge bet was needed - we would have lost... not today DraftKings, not today!! After last week, StB is now 8-1 in terms of profit verses loss and boasting a 23% ROI. Now, you tell me what isn't sexy?!? Hot damn, my pants just got a little tighter.

I get it, nobody likes missing the big bet and just settling for a $25 profit here and $50 dollar profit there. It doesn't make for a great story - but would you walk by that money and not pick it up? Nah son, I am picking it up and I am taking my family out for a little Golden Coral.... hell, get yourself a nice fountain drink - DADDY IS SPLURGING TONIGHT!! Speaking on nice comfy profits here and there.... I highly recommend that you use the DraftKings Sportsbook website (no, I am not paid for this - but if you want to... here's looking at you DK) because they offer boosts every week. Just the other day I was given a 100% boost on any NBA game. We are all aware that a boost that size is just giving us free money. I took that free money and placed it on an outlandishly stupid bet: Did that bet hit? Nope. But it was free money, do with it as I please. That happens all the time - plenty of boosts out there that you can take advantage of.

Week 10 Card

A) Browns -2/Steelers ML/Eagles -2/LAR -3.5: $20 to win $297

I) Browns play the New England Patriots and they are now without Chubb in the backfield. The last time this happened D. Johnson rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown. Ohhhhh, and Myles Garrett is going to say hello to Mac Jones more than once.

II) Steelers face Detoilet and this is going to be a bloodbath. This is a good time for Pitt to try and rest some of their banged-up players and getting ready for the end of the season push.

III) Eagles take on Denver - one of these teams just shipped off their best player on the defensive side of the ball. Philly loves to run the ball.... this matchup represents great value for the visiting team.

IV) Rams are in the MNF game and give great value for the hedge. In all reality, StB should have widen the spread and presented a little bit better value for the hedge (you will see that take place further down).

B) SGP TNF: Andrews TD/Gaskin TD/Jackson over 49 rushing/Andrews over 44 receiving: $10 to win $110

This is a simple SGP that plays into the hands of some of the key players on offense for both teams. Andrews and Gaskins are focal parts of their respective team's offense and should both get looks in the redzone. Jackson has only failed one time this season not rushing for more than 50 yards. Andrews is in line to get 8-10 targets which should correlate to easy 45+ receiving yards. Let's hit this and start this week off right!!

C) T. Lawrence (passing) + J. Taylor (rushing) 350+ yards/D. Swift + N. Harris 175+ rushing and receiving/Kelce + Waller 150+ receiving/L. Jackson 303+ rushing and receiving: $20 to win $216

Here is the deal.... we placed a $10 parlay for all four events to happen to win $143 and then we took the Round Robin for each 3-leg parlay to happen at $2.50 each leg which made it $10 to win $73. If one of the legs fails and we hit 3 of the other we can win anywhere from $17 to $19. This essentially gives us a chance to earn back out amount wagered and also at the same time play for the big payday. I like each leg a lot and all of them easily obtainable.

D) Big Bet: $5 to win $4,100

   

    

Obviously, we are all aware of what this means.... WE ARE ADDING THAT COMMA TO OUR BANKROLL!!

I) The first four games are all ML - typically I like to use the alternate spread and find a way to boost up the odds a bit. However, giving up two points did not help the odds as much as keeping those points in our back pocket.

I) Browns represent great value for a team that is built to beat a Billy Boy New England team. They provide defensive pressure up front and they can pound the ball offensively. If Baker can stay mistake free (he looked amazing last week), the Brown should easily take this game.

II) I think Tennessee fooled everyone last week. I know that New Orleans is rolling out Trevor Siemian - but as long as they stick to the game plan.... feed Kamara, they should be fine. New Orleans has a very underrated defense and should be able to hold off a Henry-less Titans offense.

III) If Murray and Hopkins play, this is a lock. If they don't play, get ready for a good sweat. 

IV) As stated earlier, Philly represents great value against a Denver team that is reeling and just about ready to fold on the season.

E) LAR -7/Chiefs -7/LAC -7/Browns -7: $20 to win $1,015

This is the same style bet as "C" for our card. We placed a $10 bet on the parlay to win $758 and $2.50 on each 3-leg parlay to win $262. This time if we miss just one of the legs we make money ($44 to $77). Given, in these matchups we have changed the lines up drastically - but I still love the odds for the lines. Rams, Chargers, Chiefs all have offenses that when they are clicking, they can put up points in hurry. The Browns looked amazing last week after the OBJ fiasco and if D. Johnson can have another big week - this bet has a legitimate chance of paying out some big dolla dolla bills y'all.

F) M. Andrews 5+ receptions/K. Pitts 5+ receptions/A. Firkser 2+ receptions: $15 to win $121

Time for the big men to have a good week catching the ball. Andrews and Pitts represent focal points in the passing offense for their respective teams. Firkser (Tennessee TE) should at least get a few extra targets with Tennessee looking to pass a little more than usual. I like his chances at securing at least two checkdowns from Tannehill throughout the game and locking this up for a big win.

G) Ravens/Buccaneers/Bills/Colts/Steelers/Cowboys/

Cardinals/Rams ML: $10 to win $65

These are all heavy favorites by the books (8 points or more). Whether they have a terrific matchup or they are a dominate team.... or they play on Monday Night Football. This is a final bet that is designed to be a little failsafe - last week the failsafe bet missed... this week it should hit and we should be sitting pretty with the option to hedge a couple bets come MNF.

It is time to be beautiful and time to make some money!!! Let's make this a big week and hit one of our big bets for a nice payout!

Week 9 Results

What a wacky week of football!! If you play fantasy football, I am guessing your scores were low for your entire league. If you bet on the NFL, I am guessing "the house" took your money. Just look at the all the upsets that took place this week....

Cleveland beat Cincinnati - Opening line Cincy -2

Denver beat Dallas - Opening line Dallas -10

Jacksonville beat Buffalo - Opening line Buffalo -14

Atlanta beat New Orleans - Opening line New Orleans -6

New York Giants beat Las Vegas - Opening line Las Vegas -3

Arizona beat San Francisco - Opening line San Francisco -3

Tennessee beat Los Angeles Rams - Opening line Los Angeles -10

How is someone suppose to make money in a week like this? Let me show you how...

A) Steelers -6.5/Cardinals -3/Rams -2/Chargers -2: Lost $15

Wow.... a Derrick Henry less Titans just made LAC looked like a middle school field hockey team. Stafford thought he was back in Detroit and looked absolutely lost on the field. This was a big bet that was suppose to be a lock once Cardinals pulled off the upset, instead we are standing here pissing away good money on a team that is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

B) Jets +10.5/Panthers -2/Chargers -2/Steelers -6.5: Lost $10

Doomed from the get go, Indianapolis really took it to the Jets. However, Josh Johnson came in and took advantage of the soft Indianapolis defense and almost scored enough garbage time points to have them cover the spread. Instead, Indianapolis intercepted the ball in the redzone and secured the easy victory. It would not have mattered though, the Panthers have forgotten to play football and their early schedule victories look like they are a thing of the past.

C) Big Bet: Lost $5 

So many things went wrong... did you see the number of big upsets that took place this week? I have a feeling that one of these is going to get hit and you do not want be stuck wishing you have jumped in. It is like I am sitting in a hot tub full of beautiful people and all you have to do is join us, come on in.... the water is fiiiiiiinnneee!

D) Giants -2/Chargers -2/Dolphins ML/Steelers -6: Lost $10

Yes, we technically lost this bet.... but we didn't really. This played out exactly as we had hoped it to play out - we were able to hedge the MNF game, and guarantee ourselves some cheddah. Jump to the bottom to get the exact wrap up on the hedge bet.

E) TNF SGP: Canceled.... returned $20

Soooooo, that happened. Corey Davis did not play in the game, which means that the SGP parlay is void and we are given back our money. Well, heck ya - this is especially good because we happen to miss the Jets score the first touchdown portion of the bet. But hey, we will take that $20 if you are willing to give it back.

F) Round Robin of 1 o'clock games: Lost $18 (Bet $21 but made $3)

I still think this sort of thing is fun every once in a while. However, in a week when the underdogs outshine the favorites - this is not going to go well. You can bet your sweet a$$ this bad boy has not seen his last days on Stacking the Bet. This has a good chance to show up on weeks when we feel confident about multiple picks and we want to protect ourselves in case something tragic goes wrong.

G) M. Ryan over 257 passing/D. Parker over 4 receptions/J. Taylor over 103 rushing+receiving/Steelers -6: Made $20 (Bet $20 and made $40)

This was part fo the Round Robin and Parlay Play. This also played out the exact way that we had hoped it would. We cashed out our parlay portion of this bet... $10 to win $32 and then we hedged the round robin when the first 3 legs hit. The Steelers ended up losing, but we still made an addition $8 on the first 3-leg bet.

If you follow @FFDojoSensei, you will see that we hedged the Pitt/Chi game and locked in some profit - another winning week in the book baby!!

H) Bears +6: Hedged $50 to win $125

This was the final bet we placed.... the hedge bet. We figured that we in line to win $186 dollars in the Steelers won by more than 6 points. There was also a boost out there that gave us increased odds and allowed us to be $50 and win $125. Essentially, this protected our original investment and gave us something to cheer for in the MNF game. Betting can be difficult, but in situations like this - don't throw away guaranteed money!!

Week 9

Bet: $131

Won: $168

Profit: $37

Season: +$207

Week 9 Bets

Are we comprehending what is happening? Are we aware of the run that we have been on? Think about this....

A) A good stock investment is said to return just under 10%

B) Government bonds usually return 5% and 6%

C) Often you can flip goods for a 10% to 15% from Marketplace/Craigslist to Ebay

So far on Stacking the Bet we have returned..... 19%. Think about that, we have returned nearly double a safe stock investment. We are not gambling, we are investing. If this were an investing article - wouldn't you follow along and invest with the "expert."

Why not follow along and gamble with the expert? We are here for you, providing you the due diligence to at least make your own decisions and bets. Let's see if we can't hit something major and drive up that ROI for our investment. The fun part about this week? If we completely strike out (which we won't), we will still be up. But we don't think that way.... we think... WHAT WILL WE DO WITH OUR WINNINGS???

A) Steelers -6.5/Cardinals -3/Rams -2/Chargers -2: $15 to win $171

I) Steelers are the MNF game and represent a perfect opportunity to hedge our winnings.

II) Cardinals should rebound from their first loss and have a longer week to prepare for the game as they played last Thursday.

III) Rams should easily win this matchup with the Titans losing Henry and LAR securing up the defense.

IV) LAC should rebound from their loss against New England - Ekeler will have a big day against Philly.

B) Jets +10.5/Panthers -2/Chargers -2/Steelers -6.5: $10 to win $198

I) Jets have now beaten Bengals and Titans (full strength) - I will take the double digit points in a game where Wentz could easily give NYJ a touchdown or two.

II) Panthers represent great value as the underdog in this matchup... CMC may make his return and this offense could finally start clicking again.

III) LAC has a comfy matchup against Philly's defense and Herbert/Ekeler/Allen will have a field day.

IV) Steelers represent a perfect hedge opportunity against a week Chicago offense.

C) Big Bet: $5 to win $70,000

 

A breakdown of a few of the picks....

I) Panthers -3: Tremendous value for a team that is welcoming back the toughest cover in the NFL.

II) Falcons -2: Saints just lost their starting QB and Atlanta could easily pull off the upset with Pitts/Godwin/Patterson on the offensive side of the ball.

III) Browns -2: I do not care about the OBJ drama, Cleveland still has a tough defense and they have Chubb in the backfield.... they were a fumble and multiple drop balls away from beating Pitt.

IV) Chiefs -3: More than likely this line will change as this blog is posted.... no Rodgers.... Chiefs allllllll day!

V) Steelers -6.5: Cashout before this game is a no brainer.

D) Giants -2/Chargers -2/Dolphins/Steelers -6: $10 to win $122

I) Giants: A Raiders team that has now lost their head coach and number one receiver - open for the taking.

II) Chargers: No way Herbert and the boys drop two straight after being crowned the young darlings of the AFC.

III) Dolphins: They play the Texans - universally the worst team in the NFL.

IV) Steelers: Hedge on MNF.

E) Thursday Night Football SGP: Colts -2.5/J. Taylor TD/C. Davis TD/J. Taylor over 79 rushing/Jets first TD: $20 to win $520

Let's be honest, this bet really comes down to Jets first touchdown and Corey Davis anytime touchdown. Last week, the Jets looked good moving the ball against Cincy's defense and Indianapolis looked decent against the run of Tennessee. The opening on the Indianapolis defense is the secondary - which means Davis should have some looks. With that being said, if NYJ can manage to lock up the first touchdown... this has a chance to make this a tremendous week. 

F) Round Robin: TNF and every 1 o'clock game to end with a favored team to win by 7-12 points: $21 to win a variety of payouts

Stay with me here....

We bet the different 2-game (10 cents), 3-game (10 cents), and 7-game (25 cents) combinations to end in with that winning margin. The different combinations payout different amounts - Round Robin style. If we happen to hit a 7-game combination we are winning anywhere between $70k and $200k. Why not? A Round Robin at least gives us an opportunity to stay alive if a game does not hit. It allows to still root for teams even though one of the legs of the parlay has already lost. We can still multiple 2-game and 3-game combos and not hit the 7-game combo.

G) M. Ryan over 257 passing/D. Parker over 4 receptions/J. Taylor over 103 rushing+receiving/Steelers -6: $10 to win $130, $2.50 Round Robin on each of the 3-game combos

We have 4 parts to this parlay/Round Robin, if one leg happens to fail - we still have a 3-game parlay left to try and recoup some of the money we wagered on the parlay.

I) M. Ryan: The Falcon offense is through the air - they throw the ball. Their top RB is a wide receiver, the top offense threat is a TE... Ryan could reach over 300 yards.

II) D. Parker had 8 receptions last week and more importantly he is averaging just under 9 targets a game when he plays. Gimme that all day!

III) J. Taylor over 103 rushing and receiving yards seems like a really low number for a player that has surpassed that total in 5 straight weeks.

IV) If you don't know by now... Pitt provides a perfect opportunity to hedge our bet.

We did go $1 over budget this week - but you won't sweat it when you are rolling in the BIG BUCKS!!

Week 8 Results

What a week this could have been.... motha fuckin' NEW YORK JETS. Who would have guessed that the Jets pull off the upset with a backup quarterback. How bad do you have to be Cincy.... how bad???? Yes, we still made money..... PER USUAL..... but it could have been even better! Let's make this post short, so I can get back to crunching numbers and continuing returning that 20% profit....

A) Bengals -3/Bills -2.5/Rams -3/Steelers -2.5: Lost $20

Yup, thanks Bengals.... cost us about $100. How they could not beat the Jets as they were trotting out that lineup. We were in line to make an easy payout and then Mike White happened.... thanks a lot Mr. White.

B) Chiefs -3/Titans -2/Panthers -2/Packers and Cardinals over 43: Win $150

What is wrong with the Chiefs? Sure, we won this bet.... but our payout was cut because the Chiefs could not beat a team that was banged up (NY Giants) by more than 3 points. When we hit our upset picks with Titans and Panthers and then the Chiefs just couldn't pull through by more than 3 points. Either way, the win puts us on top for the week.

C) Big Bet: Lost $5

This was shut down right from the get go when the TNF game didn't cover the over. Hey, we get it right? We are putting something ridiculous so that if it does hit - we are flying high!! It will happen, and when it does - you don't want to be the one sitting and watching.

D) Henry+Taylor over 200 yards/Harris+Ekeler 2+ TDs/Packers+Cards over 50 points: Lost $10

Shut down right away. The TNF game was a bust - so much for the Madden type offenses and the shootout we were hoping for. Henry and Taylor struggled to get going and Henry wound up hurt. Harris+Ekeler at least pulled their weight... those two know how to find the end zone. I will be keeping that in mind in the upcoming weeks when throwing together a few parlays.

E) Burrow over 260 passing/Patterson over 35 receiving/Hopkins over 125 receiving: Lost $15

Once again, TNF disappointed. Hopkins looked great with a monstrous catch and then was pulled from the game because of injury, no point in following afterwards. Had Hopkins, it would have been very disheartening to see Burrow throw for 259 passing yards. Woof.

F) Chargers/Bengals/Chiefs/Bills/Rams ML: Lost $30

When you put together heavy favorites to win ML and then 2 out of 5 are handed the big L.... you begin to question yourself and everything you love. Once again, how in the world did the Bengals lose to the Jets?!? Like how though??? On top of that, the Chargers lost to the Patriots - what happened Justin Herbert?

Time to keep this train rolling onto the next week and continue to just banking profit.

Week: Profit $50

Season: Profit $170