Week 16 Betting Card

Hopefully, you stayed the course with us this past week - after hitting the TNF SGP and then hitting on the one of our parlays we had a nice return. It is time to keep the good times rolling and see if we can't finish this NFL season out strong. We are nearing the time when the concept of this blog will adjust to arbitrage betting....

Arbitrage Betting: Betting both sides of the outcome and making money no matter what.

Essentially, it is hedging a bet before the "event" takes places. Anyways, I digress - we still have time and few weeks left in this season - let's get rolling! I won't waste your time... let's get to the money making...

A) TNF SGP: Kittle TD/Foreman TD/ Foreman over 49 rushing/Aiyuk over 44 receiving/Kittle over 79 receiving: $10 to win $180

    Let's keep the good times rolling and feed on the TNF SGP. Kittle has been turning it on lately and should get plenty of looks in the redzone. Foreman is filling in nicely for King Henry and will be in line to see a few goal to go handoffs. On top of that Foreman should also see 15+ carries... which is a good recipe for 49+ rushing yards. On top of Kittle's touchdown we need him to keep being the target monster that he is and reel in some receptions to the tune of 79+ receiving yards. Aiyuk should be the wide receive number one with Mitchell out and San Fran more than likely giving Samuel a lot of looks out of the backfield. Hopefully, we won't have to wait until the very last drive in regulation to celebrate the big win this week!

B) D. Foreman over 46 rushing yards/J. Jacobs over 53 rushing yards/Saints ML: $20 to win $113

    I) Foreman should easily surpass that total... he is averaging 88 yards a game the past 3 games and has yet to fail to reach that mark.

    II) Jacobs is a little closer to the mark that is given. He should see 15-20 carries this week and the Raiders have to know that their best offense is through him and the play-action. If he hits, look for the hedge bet on the MNF game.

    III) Saints represent a perfect opportunity to hedge. We are getting back to our old ways and going to leave the Saints game on many different parlays in order to represent a nice hedge for multiple parlays.

C) Buccs/Chargers/Chiefs/Cowboys/Saints ML: $20 to win $74

    As you can tell a lot of these teams are favorites (heavy favorites). However, when coupled together you can get some pretty good positive juice going. On top of being heavy favorites - they are all vying for playoff seedings and division titles. Remember, "Hungry Wolves Run Harder" - we will be betting on the hungry wolves.

D) 49ers/Packers/Colts/Buccs/Chargers/Bills/Bengals/Falcons/Rams/Jets/Eagles/Seahawks/Raiders/Chiefs/Cowboys/Saints All -1: $5 to win $3,700

If we are being real - we have actually been far closer to hitting the big bet than what I ever would have imagined. We have had multiple attempts come within 2 or 3 games. If you have the bankroll, I would Round Robin this and bet on the 12-team outcomes. Here is how the breakdown follows...

Games we feel good about: Packers/Buccs/Chargers/Eagles/Cowboys

Games that we feel good about, but need examined: 49ers/Rams/Falcons/Seahawks/Chiefs/Saints

       

        A) 49ers - should win, but they are the visiting team and both teams are fighting for division or playoffs berths

        B) Rams - one of the most talented teams on paper, visiting team and the Vikings need to win

        C) Falcons - playing the Lions, home team, but can you ever trust the Falcons?

        D) Seahawks - home team, playing the Bears - but the Bears did move the ball well last week

        E) Chiefs - AFC favorite, home team, Steelers have a good defense and can shock anyone

        F) Saints - home team, both teams are fighting for playoff spot

Games that are iffy: Colts/Bills/Bengals/Jets/Raiders

        A) Colts - One of the hottest teams in the NFL, terrific defense - visiting a reeling Cards

        B) Bills - Visiting Patriots, huge game for division - but there isn't 50 mph winds

        C) Bengals - Need to win to stay alive in the playoffs, home team against divisional rival

        D) Raiders - Home team against divisional rival, need to win to keep playoff hopes alive

E) Colts/Chargers/Bengals/Bills/Jets/Raiders all -7: $40 to win $14,000

    Alright, so here is what we did.... we bet $10 on the parlay for all of these to hit. Then we we bet $5 on every 5-team outcome to hit. If When they all hit we win $14,000... if 5 of the outcomes hit we win anywhere from $850 to $2,100 (depending on which ones hit). We went with teams that we thought were getting lines that were drastically in their favor and then we took where the game could realistically end around....

    I) Colts - One of the hottest teams in the NFL, Cards are without Hopkins and struggled against Detroit

    II) Chargers - face the Texans and are fighting to stay alive in the division race

    III) Bengals - If Huntley plays, this could be a steal!
    IV) Bills - I truly do not think the Patriots are better and I think that Allen and Diggs are out for blood

    V) Jets - The Jags might secretly be playing for the number one overall pick... disaster season

    VI) Raiders - Remember Hungry Wolves?

That puts us in for this week at $95 dollars... let's keep the good times rolling!

Week 15 Betting Card

I hope you took the advice that is always given and hedged that MNF game - the Rams beat the Cardinals but we were able to hedge and get some of our back roll back. As the year begins to wind down, be on the look out for a change in this column... we will be looking at bets and boosts that are strictly winners. For example.... Often times DraftKings will throw out a boost on specific bets and we will be exploring just how much money can be made in a calendar year taking advantage of these boosts. Trust me... you will not want to miss it!

As for now, we are going to turn this ship around and make some serious money this week.  

"Scared money makes no money."

"Always chase your bets."

"If it's one, it's three."

These are all sayings that I have heard (or said myself) when it is times to chase the almighty dollar. This week we are looking to hit a few bets and really turn this train around for the end of the season. Maybe give us some play room for the start of the new year and the new concept, eh, eh? Here we go!

Week 15 Betting Card

A) TNF SGP: Over 52 points/Kelce TD/Ekeler TD/Mahomes over 15 rushing/Mahomes over 254 passing/Cook over 24 receiving: $10 to win $120

The concept behind this bet is offense... we want offense! In a game that will determine the leader in the division the offenses will show up and reign supreme. Kansas City is starting to get things figured out and in order to keep the train rolling - Mahomes is going to need to take control. Look for him to find his big play tight end in the red zone. On the flip side, LAC will be depending on their offense to try and keep up with Mahomes and the boyzzzz and this could be a game with multiple scores.

B) R.Wilson and M. Stafford to each throw 2+ TDs/B. Roethlisberger and R. Tannehill  combined for over 4 TDs/D. Cook and D. Montgomery over 175 rushing: $20 to win $188

This is a Round Robin and Parlay bet.... there is $5 on every 2-leg outcome - to make an either $30, $32, $40 and then $5 on the Parlay portion to make $87. The games are laid out as a 1:00, 4:15, and 8:30 (Eastern) which will allow us to track where we are on the bet.

1:00 - Roethlisberger and Tannehill... this is actually the portion of bet with the longest odds. However, Tannehill and Roethlisberger are both in situations that would require them to throw the ball. If this hits it gives us a terrific chance to at least hit one of the 2-leg round robin bets.

4:15 - Wilson and Stafford to each 2 passing TDs - Once again, these quarterbacks are in offenses that are designed for them to throw the ball. Both QBs have terrific playmakers on the outside and will have plenty of opportunities for big play touchdowns or even bubble screens and flats for red zone touchdowns.

8:30 D. Cook and D. Montgomery - Personally, I think this has the hardest chance to hit over any other leg. Cook just had a career night last TNF and it is doubtful we will see something to that nature again. The Chicago offense has been a conundrum this entire year and who knows what tactic they will use this week. Both of these running backs should see 20+ rushing attempts which is equal to just over 4 yards a a carry. If the first two hit, this also presents a very good opportunity to explore options of hedging individual total yardage.

C) Rams ML/Vikings ML/Raiders -1.5/Cowboys -2: $20 to win $110

I) Raiders -1.5: Have you been paying attention to the news? If the Raiders can't win this game, I am not sure they deserve to win any game the rest of the season. The Cleveland Browns are missing nearly half of their starting line-up. Without Mayfield and Landry the Browns should be relying on the ground attack - but Hunt is out for sure and Chubb is questionable. Hammer the Raiders.

II) Cowboys -2: Cowboys are fighting for a top seed in the NFC - they need this win and they are going to come out with a fire in da belly. Prescott and the high flying offense could easily score 35+ in this game. Another option for the game is to look at the over (which we do down below).

III) Rams ML: I am firm believer in the Rams and their loaded roster. I strongly believe that they are going to win out for the rest of the regular season. They beginning to click at the right time and Stafford is a perfect fit for this offense. Oh yeah, and don't forget about the All-Pro loaded defense.

IV) Vikings ML: Not only do they get to play on MNF - but they also had a TNF game last week. This gives them 11 days to prepare for the "vaulted" Chicago Bears. Minnesota is going to grab a much needed win and keep their playoffs hopes alive for the wild card race.

D/E) KC v LAC over 52/NE v IND under 46/DAL v NYG over 44/SEA v LAR over 45: $20 to win $271, $20 to win $140

Three of these games consist of betting the over: KC/LAC, DAL/NYG, SEA/LAR. Here are the offensive ratings for each team...

KC: 8th in PPG - 27 points

LAC: 9th in PPG - 27 points

Combined PPG: 54 points

DAL: 2nd in PPG - 29.2 points

NYG: 27th in PPG - 17.8 points

Combined PPG: 47 points

SEA: 22nd in PPG - 20.9 points (and this includes games without Wilson)

LAR: 4th in PPG - 28.2 points

Combined PPG: 49.1 points

The one game that consists of the under being taken: NE/IND. Here are the defensive ratings for each team....

NE: 1st in PPG - 15.4 points

IND: 9th in PPG - 21.8 points

Combined points given up: 37.2 points

Hello? Easy money right? Which is why we also took a Round Robin on the 3-game outcomes at $5 a piece to win different outcomes in the $35 range. When you see something you really like.... you take advantage of it!

F)  BIG BET: Chiefs/Raiders/Colts/Bills/Cardinals/Cowboys/Dolphins/Steelers/Jaguars/Eagles/49ers/Bengals/Packers/Rams/Buccs/Vikings: $5 to win $2,185

Games we really like: Cowboys, Bills, 49ers, Packers, Raiders, Cardinals, Rams, Buccs

Games we think are close: Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, Vikings

Games we are questioning: Colts, Steelers, Jaguars, Bengals

Why the Colts? The Colts are built like a playoff team if Wentz doesn't get in the way. Wentz needs to be okay with not making the heroic play and trust his check down and his defense. The Colts need this win to drastically improve their chances of making the playoffs and if any team can stop the run game of New England - it is Leonard and that front seven.

Why the Steelers? I am looking at the 1st half of last TNF, but rather focusing on the 2nd half. The Steelers were able to get back to Steeler football and made a good run at trying to win the game. Roethlisberger is best when he is getting rid of the ball quickly and letting his playmakers work in space. 

Why the Jaguars? Wouldn't it be poetic for them to win the week they fire Meyer? Maybe it is a coincidence they fire him on the same week they play the Houston Texans.... maybe it isn't? Either way, this is a very winnable game for the Jags - they need allow Lawrence the time to work and they need to feed their playmakers.

Why the Bengals? This is the same team that demolished the Raiders, Steelers, and Ravens. They also went to overtime with Vikings, Packers, and 49ers. What do all those opponents have in common? They are playoff contenders. They are battle ready for the Denver Broncos.

In total that gives us $95 dollars on week 15 - why not us? WHY NOT US? WHY NOT!!!!

Week 14 Betting Card

The Lion. THE F*CKING LIONS. Who would have ever guessed that the Lions were going to be the Vikings. You know what that game cost us? 180ish dollars. How do you figure that amount? Well, we lost bet "C," which would have been $58. And we had our MNF game to go for bet "E," which would have been $316. Even though we lost the MNF game, we could have hedged or cashed out and taken some guaranteed profit. Remember, here at Stacking the Bet - we are in the business of hedging and taking guaranteed profit. Instead, we only made $58 on our $100 betting card - but the season still has 5 weeks to go and we are ready to get a nice lump sum back this week. 

Right now, we are in the "Puke and Rally" stage of the party. Varsity Blue anyone? Anyone? We have all been there - we are at a party having a good time, drinking a little, chatting it up a little. We hit that stage when we start to feel pretty good and we get that drunken confidence that takes over. We think we can talk to any lady (or fella) and we got a definite chance of popping into one of those empty rooms in the back. In all reality - there is no way in hell that is ever going to happen. Doesn't matter. We hit that feel good confidence stride and we are willing to try anything. Then it hits you - hits you really hard. You can feel it inside, your mouth starts to water and there is nothing you can do about it. You gotta find the most convenient place to unload - time to make the puke happen. Once discharge all that your stomach has disagreed with, you gotta decide: Call it a night or PUKE AND RALLY!! I think you know which direction we are going.... TIME TO F*CKIN RALLY

Betting Card

A) TNF SGP: Steelers -2.5/Pitt race to 5/Pitt race to 10/D. Johnson touchdown: $10 to win $110

The concept behind this bet is the fact that the Vikings are still favored in a game in which their opponent has the better RB, better defense, and deeper receiving WR group (if Thielen remains hampered by injury). The only thing the Vikings have going for them is playing at home - look for Pitt to jump out to a large lead and let their defense take control of this game.

B) Chargers ML/Cowboys ML/Seahawks ML/Bills ML/Lions +8/Rams ML: $15 to win $380

I) Chargers are playing extremely good football right now. They are still in the hunt for their division and even without Allen - they should be able to find plenty of openings with M. Williams and Ekeler out of the backfield.

II) Cowboys need this win to pretty much lock up the division - there is no chance they are going to leave this one to doubt. Look for Dak to have an outstanding game and find his playmakers all over the field.

III) The Seahawks are playing the Texans - a team already eliminated from playoff contention - Russ and the boys should have an easy time picking a much needed win this week.

IV) The Bills are the underdog pick this week against the Buccs. I like to think that Allen and Diggs are going to prove to everyone that they can play in weather that isn't 55+ mph winds.

V) Lions +8.... we are talking about a team that is riding high after their first win in 1 year. Not to mention, the roster itself is not as far behind the Broncos as what the NFL wants you to think.

VI) Rams ML is a bet that we can always hedge or see what the cash out is. Now, they are underdogs - which means it will take a little more on the hedge, but we could see a higher cash-out offering with the increased odds of the parlay.

C) Seahawks/Chiefs/Cowboys/Chargers/Cardinals ML: $20 to win $99

I) Seahawks get a gift of having to face Davis Mills running the Texans offense - which is stagnant already and has looked even more dimensional with Mills at the helm.

II) Chiefs face the Raiders at home and it is a big division battle - no chance Mahomes lets this one slip away.

III) Cowboys are also in a division battle, but they are visiting Washington. Washington has a very good defense - but without Young putting pressure on Dak, this Dallas offense will be difficult to contain.

IV) Chargers.... did you see what they did to Cincy last week?

V) Cardinals play in the MNF game and this is a perfect hedge opportunity.

D) BIG BET - Steelers/Chiefs/Seahawks/Browns/Titans/Cowboys/Saints/Falcons/Chargers/Broncos/Bills/Bengals/Packers/Rams: $5 to win $3.4k

We were dangerously close to hitting last week... I can smell it, I can taste it, it is nearly in our grasp. The Steelers are underdogs in the TNF matchup - but they also come into the game with the better defense and plenty of weapons on offense. Look for them to pull off the upset and get this trending in the right direction.

Browns have a tough battle as well, going against the division leading Baltimore Ravens. However, Cleveland has the run game and defense to control the game and play it at their pace. Another option for this game would be to take the under and expect multiple clock draining drives from either side. 

The Bills face the Buccs and this will a matchup featuring two teams with high post-season hopes. It is tremendously important to Buffalo as they find themselves in the middle of the WILD CARD race. Last week's loss hurt their division standings and also put them in the middle of the pack for the wild card - it would extremely detrimental if they were to lose this week and take back-to-back losses.

Obviously, as it should go without stating - the Rams are our hedge opportunity. We will most likely take the cash-out for this option. We would be offered right around $1,500 and it is going to be hard to walk away from that amount of money, especially with a game that should be extremely tight. 

E) N. Harris 100+ rushing/D. Johnson 125+ receiving/J. Jacobs 58+ rushing: $15 to win $412

Najee and Johnson are the focal points of the Pittsburgh offense. Both of these teams (Steelers and Vikings) come in to this game needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think Pittsburgh has a chance to move the ball and the start the game Johnson could see multiple targets. To ice the game, Harris could see 20+ rushing attempts. 

Jacobs is the guy in the backfield of Las Vegas. LV is going to need to keep the ball away from Mahomes - which means Jacobs is going to see plenty of action. This is an extremely low number, you could even bet this straight and feel really comfortable.

F) Rams/Seahawks/Cowboys/Giants +15: $20 to win $117

Let's just put it this way.... Cowboys and Seahawks should win their matchups. Rams are the MNF game - hedge opportunity. Which leaves the Giants against the LA Chargers. The Giants should lose, but the Chargers are without Allen and Williams, which gives a great opportunity to throw some extra points on the Giants side and hope they can slow down Ekeler and.......... crickets.

This puts us at $85 all-in for this week. Let's get this train rolling!!

Week 13 Betting Card

Well, if you have made it this far - you are either just as much of a degenerate as I am or you are a sucker for pain. Somehow, everything in the past 3 weeks has taken a downward spiral - and it has gone fast! We will be looking for a way to find the Big Mo - turn this b*tch around and make some actual money. There definitely needs to be some self-evaluation and thought process thrown into the structures of the bets we are making. 

I am going to shift the focus of the betting card to more bets and games and spreads and see if we can't make some profit this week. After running cold for 3-weeks, we have extinguished our profit and are now back in the hole.... something that should not be unfamiliar to degenerate gamblers - but also something that can easily be dug out of. I like to think of it as similar to the movie "In Time." 

The movie features Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried trying to uproot the current structure of society. Time is currency and you get to live until 25 and then you have one year's worth of time that you can spend and earn more time - once you are out of time... you die. Everyone has a clock on their arm and it shows how much time is left on their life and they have to choose what to spend hours/months/years on. They are also able to give time to each other by locking arms and turning one direction or the other. Naturally, a way to gamble was found and two people could lock arms and "arm wrestle" for each other's time left on their life. The winner would get all the time and the loser would die. JT's character said that the best way to win was to allow the other person to take control and think they were going to win, they would then lose focus and look at your time you had left as you were getting ready to die - then you could take advantage and flip the script. Essentially, allowing yourself to lose everything in order to gain everything. Well, we have lost everything.... NOW IS TIME TO GAIN EVERYTHING!!

Week 13 Betting Card

A) J. Taylor Rushing + B. Cooks Receiving over 175 yards/Mixon + Ekeler over 200 scrimmage yards/M. Jones passing + J. Allen rushing over 300 yards: $15 to win $132

All three of these legs come from the Weekly Specials section of Draftkings and it feels like they are just giving away money with these...

I) Taylor has been the number one running back in the league has eclipsed 100 yards a game in 5 of the last 7 weeks. Cooks is emerging as the number one receiver in Houston - which welcomed back Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. This could easily push over 200 yards.... with Taylor rushing for 150 by himself.

II) Mixon and Ekeler are the focal points in their respective offense - these two could easily reach over 250 yards from scrimmage. Mixon has been running like the number one RB in the entire league and Ekeler will at least have 15+ touches.

III) The New England Patriots are going to try and run the ball - but the game script should flip towards throwing the ball as they begin to trail Buffalo. Allen could eclipse 50 rushing yards and Jones could easily throw for 300 yards by himself.

In all reality, these bets look strong with the names that are thrown around.... but Vegas knows these names are being thrown around a lot and each player's single game averages are somewhat close to the total. There is a reason I am only throwing $15 on this parlay.

B) TNF SGP: Cowboys -4.5/T. Hill Touchdown/T. Pollard 10+ receiving yards/E. Elliott 2+ receptions: $15 to win $150

I) Cowboys -4.5: The Cowboys are coming off a stunning loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders and that was without Lamb and Cooper. They welcome them back and now have their offense back to full strength. 

II) T. Hill Touchdown: If the Saints get into the redzone - you can pretty much bet that it is going to be a rushing touchdown. Can anyone even name the number one receiver for the Saints? There are three players that are going to score for the Saints... Hill/Kamara/Ingram. Hill touches the ball everytime they are in the redzone - and the Saints love to call the RPO.... which gives Hill the most opportunities.

III) Pollard 10+ receiving yards: The past four games receiving yards total: 32, 20, 56, 32. Should be an easy hit.

IV) Elliott 2+ receptions: You would have to go back to week 4 to get to Elliott having less than 2 receptions. Should also be an easy hit.

***DraftKings is now offering a boost on SGP's - you can get this at even better odds.... HIGHLY RECOMMENDED***

C) Colts -3/Vikings -3/Eagles -3: $20 to win $58

I) Colts match up against the Texans this week and they need this win in order to stay relevant in the wild card race. Look for Taylor to have close to 150 yards from scrimmage and the Colts to control the time of possession.

II) Vikings match up against the Lions and also need a win to stay relevant in the wild card race. The Lions have nothing to play for and a "hungry wolf runs harder" will definitely apply in this matchup.

III) Eagles matchup against the NY Jets and yet again the Eagles need to win to stay alive in the wild card race. Look for Philly to return back to their dominate ground game and control the line of scrimmage with Hurts and Sanders.

D) Buccs -3/Rams -3/Cardinals -3/Chiefs -3: $20 to win $58

This bet is split in two concepts: teams coming off bye weeks and teams with favorable matchups...

I) Bye Week Teams: Chiefs and Cardinals are both coming off bye weeks and should have had plenty of time to prepare and come out strong this week.

II) Buccs and Rams have favorable matchups against the Falcons and Jaguars respectively. Both (Buccs and Rams) teams will be looking to strengthen their position in the NFC race for playoff seeding and both will look to come out firing.

E) Combine "C" and "D" and add Bills -3: $20 to win $316

You have to think that we feel very confident in each of those bets hitting, between the hungry wolves and the bye week teams - everything looks favorable. Which means, we may as well combine them and add the MNF game for a hedge or even bigger sweat. Let's take back everything we lost in the past three weeks and hit it big this week.

F) BIG BET: Cowboys/Colts/Buccs/Cards/Vikings/Chargers/Eagles/Dolphins/Washington/Rams/Ravens/49ers/Chiefs/Bills All Money Lines: $5 to win $1,000

We are going all ML for the big bet this week. Normally I would try and gain a little extra with the giving up a point or two... this week we are keeping to points in our pockets and we going for picking winners. In all reality there are only a few games we are really watching....

I) Chargers/Bengals: Chargers have the offense to control the ball and the defense to pressure Burrow.

II) Dolphins/Giants: Dolphins have been playing exceptionally well and if they can force Danny Dimes into a few errant throws they should be able to walk away with a win.

III) Washington/Raiders: The Raiders are coming off a big win last week - but they are now going to be missing Waller and Washington has found something with Heinicke controlling the offense.

IV) Ravens/Steelers: Can anybody trust the Steelers these days? The Ravens will look to end Big Ben's reign of terror on a sour note.

This puts us all in at $95 this week, take the extra $5 and go buy yourself a pint a Ben and Jerry's and enjoy watching the game and the money rolling in... I am just going to say this ahead of time, "You're Welcome!"

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