Week 13 Betting Card

Well, if you have made it this far - you are either just as much of a degenerate as I am or you are a sucker for pain. Somehow, everything in the past 3 weeks has taken a downward spiral - and it has gone fast! We will be looking for a way to find the Big Mo - turn this b*tch around and make some actual money. There definitely needs to be some self-evaluation and thought process thrown into the structures of the bets we are making. 

I am going to shift the focus of the betting card to more bets and games and spreads and see if we can't make some profit this week. After running cold for 3-weeks, we have extinguished our profit and are now back in the hole.... something that should not be unfamiliar to degenerate gamblers - but also something that can easily be dug out of. I like to think of it as similar to the movie "In Time." 

The movie features Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried trying to uproot the current structure of society. Time is currency and you get to live until 25 and then you have one year's worth of time that you can spend and earn more time - once you are out of time... you die. Everyone has a clock on their arm and it shows how much time is left on their life and they have to choose what to spend hours/months/years on. They are also able to give time to each other by locking arms and turning one direction or the other. Naturally, a way to gamble was found and two people could lock arms and "arm wrestle" for each other's time left on their life. The winner would get all the time and the loser would die. JT's character said that the best way to win was to allow the other person to take control and think they were going to win, they would then lose focus and look at your time you had left as you were getting ready to die - then you could take advantage and flip the script. Essentially, allowing yourself to lose everything in order to gain everything. Well, we have lost everything.... NOW IS TIME TO GAIN EVERYTHING!!

Week 13 Betting Card

A) J. Taylor Rushing + B. Cooks Receiving over 175 yards/Mixon + Ekeler over 200 scrimmage yards/M. Jones passing + J. Allen rushing over 300 yards: $15 to win $132

All three of these legs come from the Weekly Specials section of Draftkings and it feels like they are just giving away money with these...

I) Taylor has been the number one running back in the league has eclipsed 100 yards a game in 5 of the last 7 weeks. Cooks is emerging as the number one receiver in Houston - which welcomed back Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. This could easily push over 200 yards.... with Taylor rushing for 150 by himself.

II) Mixon and Ekeler are the focal points in their respective offense - these two could easily reach over 250 yards from scrimmage. Mixon has been running like the number one RB in the entire league and Ekeler will at least have 15+ touches.

III) The New England Patriots are going to try and run the ball - but the game script should flip towards throwing the ball as they begin to trail Buffalo. Allen could eclipse 50 rushing yards and Jones could easily throw for 300 yards by himself.

In all reality, these bets look strong with the names that are thrown around.... but Vegas knows these names are being thrown around a lot and each player's single game averages are somewhat close to the total. There is a reason I am only throwing $15 on this parlay.

B) TNF SGP: Cowboys -4.5/T. Hill Touchdown/T. Pollard 10+ receiving yards/E. Elliott 2+ receptions: $15 to win $150

I) Cowboys -4.5: The Cowboys are coming off a stunning loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders and that was without Lamb and Cooper. They welcome them back and now have their offense back to full strength. 

II) T. Hill Touchdown: If the Saints get into the redzone - you can pretty much bet that it is going to be a rushing touchdown. Can anyone even name the number one receiver for the Saints? There are three players that are going to score for the Saints... Hill/Kamara/Ingram. Hill touches the ball everytime they are in the redzone - and the Saints love to call the RPO.... which gives Hill the most opportunities.

III) Pollard 10+ receiving yards: The past four games receiving yards total: 32, 20, 56, 32. Should be an easy hit.

IV) Elliott 2+ receptions: You would have to go back to week 4 to get to Elliott having less than 2 receptions. Should also be an easy hit.

***DraftKings is now offering a boost on SGP's - you can get this at even better odds.... HIGHLY RECOMMENDED***

C) Colts -3/Vikings -3/Eagles -3: $20 to win $58

I) Colts match up against the Texans this week and they need this win in order to stay relevant in the wild card race. Look for Taylor to have close to 150 yards from scrimmage and the Colts to control the time of possession.

II) Vikings match up against the Lions and also need a win to stay relevant in the wild card race. The Lions have nothing to play for and a "hungry wolf runs harder" will definitely apply in this matchup.

III) Eagles matchup against the NY Jets and yet again the Eagles need to win to stay alive in the wild card race. Look for Philly to return back to their dominate ground game and control the line of scrimmage with Hurts and Sanders.

D) Buccs -3/Rams -3/Cardinals -3/Chiefs -3: $20 to win $58

This bet is split in two concepts: teams coming off bye weeks and teams with favorable matchups...

I) Bye Week Teams: Chiefs and Cardinals are both coming off bye weeks and should have had plenty of time to prepare and come out strong this week.

II) Buccs and Rams have favorable matchups against the Falcons and Jaguars respectively. Both (Buccs and Rams) teams will be looking to strengthen their position in the NFC race for playoff seeding and both will look to come out firing.

E) Combine "C" and "D" and add Bills -3: $20 to win $316

You have to think that we feel very confident in each of those bets hitting, between the hungry wolves and the bye week teams - everything looks favorable. Which means, we may as well combine them and add the MNF game for a hedge or even bigger sweat. Let's take back everything we lost in the past three weeks and hit it big this week.

F) BIG BET: Cowboys/Colts/Buccs/Cards/Vikings/Chargers/Eagles/Dolphins/Washington/Rams/Ravens/49ers/Chiefs/Bills All Money Lines: $5 to win $1,000

We are going all ML for the big bet this week. Normally I would try and gain a little extra with the giving up a point or two... this week we are keeping to points in our pockets and we going for picking winners. In all reality there are only a few games we are really watching....

I) Chargers/Bengals: Chargers have the offense to control the ball and the defense to pressure Burrow.

II) Dolphins/Giants: Dolphins have been playing exceptionally well and if they can force Danny Dimes into a few errant throws they should be able to walk away with a win.

III) Washington/Raiders: The Raiders are coming off a big win last week - but they are now going to be missing Waller and Washington has found something with Heinicke controlling the offense.

IV) Ravens/Steelers: Can anybody trust the Steelers these days? The Ravens will look to end Big Ben's reign of terror on a sour note.

This puts us all in at $95 this week, take the extra $5 and go buy yourself a pint a Ben and Jerry's and enjoy watching the game and the money rolling in... I am just going to say this ahead of time, "You're Welcome!"

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