Week 8 Predictions

There are always those weeks in the NFL when it looks like it is just going to be a biiiiigggg week..... THIS IS ONE OF THOSE WEEKS.

There are matchups that should provide easy wins and matchups that provide positive juice. If you are unaware of positive juice - it is referring to a team get positive odds when they may actually be the favorite. For example, if you look at the Tennessee Titans game against the Indianapolis Colts game this week.... the Titans are getting +105 as the odds... which places the team that recently beat the Kansas Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills as underdogs? Read that last statement one more time just for verification.

Keeping that concept in mind - we are going to try and throw together multiple bets that include heavy favorites and one or two underdogs. Let's see what we got on tap this week...

A) Bengals -3/Bills -2.5/Rams -3/Steelers -2.5: $20 to win $102

Bengals v Jets.... Bills v Dolphins... Rams v Texans.... each one of these games should be a lock. You have emerging playoff favorites against teams that are bottom of the barrel and quite possibly calling it a season.

Steelers are the underdogs against a Cleveland Browns team that is ridiculed with injuries. Chubb should be returning and Mayfield is a maybe - but one thing I know for sure, TJ Watt will playing on the defensive side of the ball for Pittsburgh. Watt is a game wrecker and as long as he is playing on the defensive side of the ball Pittsburgh has a chance to win any game. Pittsburgh is coming off their bye week and should have had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup.

B) Chiefs -3/Titans -2/Panthers -2/Packers and Cardinals over 43: $20 to win $201

Chiefs are the MNF football game and are heavy favorites - betting them gives a chance to hedge or ride it out with best squad in the matchup. The Titans are a team that playing some of the best football in the entire league and for whatever reason they are getting positive juice. The Panthers have a tough defense against Atlanta's offense - but Atlanta has proven that they can not stop anyone from moving the ball. However, this bet really gets rolling with Rodgers vs. Murray in what should be a complete shootout on TNF. This bet features two easy wins (TNF and MNF) and two teams that could easily pull off the upsets on Sunday.

C) Big Bet: $5 to win $24,000

  

This bet is filled with favorites giving up points and a few teams that could easily pull off the upset...

Steelers v Browns: Steelers are coming off a bye week and Cleveland is facing injury issues.

Titans v Colts: I still don't understand why the Titans are underdogs in this matchup.

Panthers v Falcons: I am not sold on the emergence of Pitts and Patterson as a duo that can carry a team.

Jaguars v Seahawks: The Jaguars are coming off a bye week and facing Geno Smith, why not?

Washington v Broncos: Washington has a decent air attack and good enough defense to make this happen.

IF NOT US, THEN WHO??

D) Henry+Taylor over 200 rushing/Harris+Ekeler 2+ TDs/Packers+Cards over 50: $10 to win $112

Two of these plays are from the DK weekly specials - both the running back plays. Henry and Taylor are the focal points of both these offenses and both should easily amount to over 100 yards rushing. Harris or Ekeler each have a chance to score 2 touchdowns on their own, let alone combined. Are we about to watch Madden take place before our very eyes on TNF - will either team be able to stop each other on offense?

E) Burrow over 260 passing/Patterson over 35 receiving/Hopkins over 125 rec. & +1 TD: $15 to win $681

This bet really comes down to Hopkins having a big night. TNF is shaping up to be a shootout and if Hopkins plays, the Green Bay secondary has been underwhelming as best. This could set up for a big night for Hopkins - if his portion of the bet hits, there are plenty of options to consider (hedges/cash outs/riding it out).

F) Chargers/Chiefs/Bengals/Bills/Rams all ML: $30 to win $77

These are all favorites that I feel extremely confident about. Whether they are playing terrible teams: Rams v Texans, Bengals v Jets..... or they are playing extremely good football: Bills.... or they are coming off a bye week: Chargers.... or I just can't envision them 2 games under .500: Chiefs - I find it extremely hard for anyone to convince me that anything other than an easy win for these 5 teams is going to happen this week. If you parlay all these together you actually get to positive juice - and that is the theme of this week's blog....

LET'S MAKE SOME MULAH BABAY!!

Week 7 Results

Are we surprised? Is it even shocking anymore? Obviously this train is still rolling and we have just added another winning week to belt. We now sit at 6-1 in profitable weeks and we are up 24 units ($5 a unit). If you aren't into making money, this obviously isn't for you. Please, by all means, go tail someone else - however, if you enjoy making a steady profit with chances and big payoffs... Welcome to Stacking the Bet. 

Let's look at what went wrong and what went right in Week 7....

A) Falcons -3/Saints -3/Colts -3: Lost $20

Hot dang, the Falcons have no clue how to close out games. At one point in the 4th quarter the Falcons were up 27-14.... thinking this game is gravy. Not only did Miami close the gap - they actually took the lead. It took a final drive and a field goal as time expired for the Falcons to squeak out a win against a team that just played in London. How embarrassing!!

B) TNF SGP: Lost $15

As I stated in the write-up... SGP are designed to allow you to bet multiple outcomes in the same game. Here at StB we went with Denver Broncos (tons of injuries on Cleveland's roster) - which means we placed bets in accordance to Denver winning. Well, that clearly didn't happen and in fact we were really just a big Fant touchdown reception away from clearing out the SGP and making this a big win. Instead, D'Ernest Johnson had a monstrous week and Cleveland showed that it doesn't matter who the "battery" is in their backfield... their offense line is going to create holes for anyone to run through.

C) Packers -2/Rams -4/Buccs -3/Saints -2: Won $73

These were all big-time favorites in their respective matchups. Instead of just picking them to win moneyline, I tend to give up a few points (especially in instances when they are heavy favorites) and try and get a little better odds. Sometimes it comes back and bites me in the butt.... this time it did not. The favorites held serve and we were able to cash a nice bet the closed out on MNF with the Saints barely sneaking by the Seahawks.

D) Big Bet: Lost $5

This was shut down right away when the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns decided forget how to move the ball on offense. The struggle was real and it quickly became a defensive battle. They failed to reach a combined score over 38 points (pitiful). Which made this zero fun come Sunday... but hey, we will continue to put these together - because, why not us? WHY NOT US?!?

E) Matt Ryan over 281/Fant over 3 receptions: Won $62

This might have been the easiest "parlayed" prop bet there was. Had I been smart - I would have thrown in Engram receptions as well (Giants were depleted and I went back forth on the number, ultimately left it out). The Falcons have zero run game - their running back is a wide receiver turned running back. Their playmakers are all pass catchers. Fant was primed for an easy 5-9 target game... easy bet.

F) Keenum over 220/Wentz over 231/ Murray+Hopkins 2+ touchdowns: Lost $15

I actually felt really confident in this bet. Keenum dropped the ball and the Cleveland Browns just continued to pound the rock. Honestly, if someone told me that Chubb and Hunt were both out - I would bet the over passing yards 99/100 times (the one time would be when I randomly lose internet due to a comet plummeting towards the earth). Wentz only had 150 yards - which only adds to the fire for the next week. Murray spread the ball around and didn't get a rushing touchdown himself. For feeling confident about the bet, none of the legs hit.... what do you do??

Week: +$35

Season: +$120

Week 7 Bets

It is high time this blog blows up a little - Hey Dali, how about a little something for the effort?

If you have followed this blog - you are up 17 units (for us a unit is $5... but you could always bet a higher unit). Imagine a gambling blog that has won 5 weeks in a row and provided fantastic sweats - what more do you want???? Ohhhh you want a big win? Something that is easy to provide a profit? Sooooo you are telling me you don't like gambling? "Sweats" are apart of gambling and if you don't enjoy a good sweat - then you are following the wrong blog. Let's look at how you are going to make money and just how much you are going to make....

A) Falcons -3/Saints -3/Colts -3: $20 to win $220 (+1000)

Here are my thoughts... Falcons and Saints are coming off a bye week and have comfy matchups. Falcons face the Dolphins and Miami just played in London... historically teams have struggled with the travel and even more so after the return trip. The Saints are coming off the bye week and they will face-off against the Seahawks with Geno Smith. Which means we are looking at great odds for a Colts team that is playing very well - however, the 49ers are coming off a bye week and should be ready. Kittle is hurt and Lance is starting - which is only his 2nd game ever. This looks too juicy to pass up.

B) TNF SGP - Gordon TD/Fant TD/Broncos -4.5/Bridgewater 195+ Passing/Fant 39+ receiving and 4+ receptions: $15 to win $690 (+4500)

Let's be real - when you are betting a SGP you can pair up multiple occurrences to take place that would need to happen for a specific team to win. Soooooo, if I am going to bet that the Broncos are going to win by 5 or more points..... then that means that the Denver offense is going to have a day. In the games the Broncos have won this season, Bridgewater has thrown for 200+ yards and Denver has averaged 25 points per game - which gives plenty of opportunity for touchdowns. If Denver is to win the game, they will need to do it through their stars - Fant is a tremendous pass catching TE and Gordon provides opportunity through the air and ground. Once again, this is if Denver is going to win.... I highly recommend that if you think Cleveland is going to win - figure out what they would need to do in order for that to happen (throw the ball against Denver's secondary) and couple that with your bet.

C) Packers -2/Rams -4/Buccs -3/Saints -2: $25 to win $73 (+200)

Let's break it down....

I) Remember, "I still own you!" Yeah, that man is planning on playing football again this week. As long as the Packers have 12 under center and Adams running routes and Jones in the backfield - I am taking Green Bay. Realistically, I would be very comfortable giving up more points.

II) You think this game doesn't matter to these quarterbacks? I expect this to be fun game to watch - but one side is just a little too over qualified for this matchup. The LAR are a better team across the board and there is no chance the LAR defense is going to let their quarterback walk away without a victory against his former team.

III) Tom Brady... at home... nuff said.

IV) Saints are coming into town and they plan on taking all the Seattle Seahawks lunch money. Unfortunately for the NFL they probably were not picturing Geno Smith under center. Luckily, for New Orleans they get Geno Smith under center.

D) Big Bet Time: $5 to win $17,000+ (Odds are crazy)

 

Pictures say a thousand words..... or maybe 17 thousand words! The odds are always changing, but you should be able to get this bet placed anywhere between $17,000 and $18,000 - if you get more, don't turn it down. There are a multiple plus odds legs in this parlay, let's look at them....

I) Panthers -4: I love this line. Yes, Carolina is missing Run CMC - but let's not act like this defense isn't the true beast of the team. Carolina should have no trouble stopping this NYG attack, especially considering they will be missing Barkley.

II) Falcons -3: As I stated earlier, Atlanta is coming off a bye week and Miami just played in London - no brainer.

III) NY Jets +6: Personally, I think that the Wilson and the Jets are better than what America thinks. Remember, this is the same team that beat the Titans - and they just took down Buffalo. Wilson will make mistakes - but he will also make explosive plays. I would take the NYJ's playmakers of New England's any day, give me the points and the playmakers.

IV) Colts -3: To be completely honest, if we get this far - there will be some debating between cashing out or hedging the final two games. At that point, we will be facing a very nice pay day. I truly think Indianapolis will win this game - so many injuries on the San Fransisco side and Indy is beginning to look like a team that knows how to feed their bell cow (Taylor).

E) Matt Ryan over 281 passing/Noah Fant over 3 receptions: $20 to win $62 (+210)

If you haven't caught on yet - I really like the Falcons game. Especially considering they don't have a true running back (sorry Mike Davis truthers) and Ryan loves to call his own number. With Pitts/Patterson and Ridley now back in the mix - this should not take much for Ryan to surpass the pass total, he may even have this covered by the end of the 3rd quarter. Fant should get plenty of looks in a game that will be closer than what Vegas thinks. With injuries across the board for Cleveland - look Bridgewater to lean on his premier pass catchers... Sutton and Fant. Both of these legs should cover.... maybe even early.

F) Keenum over 220 passing/Wentz over 231 passing/Murray+Hopkins 2 or more rushing and receiving touchdowns: $15 to win $117 (+686)

Keenum is going to play on TNF - get this bet in as soon as possible. Chubb and Hunt are both out for the game... Broncos should run away with this game. This also means that the Browns will be in a negative game script and will need to throw the ball often. The Colts are at their best when Wentz is feeding Taylor the ball - but at some point they will need to keep the defense honest. It will not be hard for Wentz to reach this amount - which also hedges our bets featuring the Colts (possible negative game script). Murray and Hopkins welcome the Texans - which is very inviting for the Zona offense as a whole. Murray could possibly have multiple rushing touchdowns on his own, let alone using this game to feed his main target and keep him happy. Once we hit this and finish on top for the weekend, we can focus on multiple other bets and really start to pocket some mulah!!!

Time to be beautiful and make some money!!

Week 6 Results

To be completely candid with you - I am on vacation in Texas. My mind is with my family and having fun on the beach and going to shops and enjoying spending money..... BECUZ ALL WE DO IS WIN!!! This is now the 5 week in a row we finished on top - not by much this week, but finishing on top is finishing on top. When all you do is make profit - it is hard not to think that you will hit every single bet you make.

The reality is - we place multiple bets so that when a couple hit, we finish in the profit. I have this funny feeling that we are going to eventually hit every bet we place and we might just hit big.... soon.... really soon.

Let's look at Week 6 bets....

A) TNF SGP: Lost $15

Somehow, and I have no clue how, Miles Sanders hit the over in rushing yards against the Tampa Bay Buccs defense. Keep in mind this is the same defense that teams have just decided not to run against - teams like Dallas, Los Angeles (Rams), Miami, New England. We are talking about teams that generally rely on the run to create space for their receivers - all just avoided the ground. So yes, I have no clue how - but Miles Sanders hit the over in rushing yards.

B) Chiefs -2/Packers -2/Steelers -2: Won $49

The only thing that I am kicking myself about - why not give up more points for the Chiefs. There was no way Patty Mahomes was going out like a punk in the first half of the season. I also think I should have pushed the button a little more with the Packers. I don't if Rodgers reads the blog - he clearly must, since I referred to him as Daddy of Chicago - but he made it very clear that he still owns them....

C) Miscellaneous Round Robin: Lost $20

Not incredibly surprised here - but this would have been a bigger payday if it hit. There was a definite chance that Lawrence/Robinson had 2+ combined rushing touchdowns (actually surprised that did not hit). The Packer combo fell well short - but it also had ridiculous odds. I truly think the Chicago defense is tough - but you never when Rodgers has the ball and at anytime Jones/Adams could explode. The last portion was a complete bust - not sure Herbert knew what was happening during that game. The LAC offense could not get anything going... Colts fans should take note of how well their team is playing if the Baltimore defense completely shut down the LAC offense.

D) Weekly big bet: Lost $10

Honestly, this was much closer to paying out than what people think. We missed 3 games total... SNF, MNF, and the LAC/Baltimore game. Let's be honest, we were never to going to see the MNF game played out if we made it that far. It was always going to be a cash out or hedge at that time. SNF was probably in the same boat (no hedge, but possibly the cash out). More than likely if we made it to SNF we were getting a 4-digit cash out option... definitely would have taken that. Which means we only really missed a payout option by one game. Effin' LAC.

E) Ekeler/Fields/McLaurin/Sutton: Lost $20

Ehhhhh.... close but no cigar. McLaurin missed this portion - and he was in a game that he realistically should have exploded. Kansas City has proven time and time again that they could not stop anyone - but somehow McLaurin could reel in enough targets for this to hit. Not only that, but I also just made a big trade in one of my fantasy leagues for McLaurin - double whammy.

F) Rams/Colts/Steelers/Buccs: Won $55

This was a last minute switch for the betting card - once again... you need to follow @FFDojoSensei to keep up to date. Buccs were an easy choice and should have been featured throughout your card for the week. The Steelers also are in the same boat - that defense against Geno Smith? C'mon Man! Colts had a cupcake matchup against the Texans and the Rams had the NY Giants - tooooo easy. The real trick will be to find a way to get plus money in the future when you know Vegas is going to keep shifting odds as we know more and more about the NFL teams.

Week 6: $4 Profit

Season: $85 Profit (+17 units)

Be on the lookout for Week 7!!!!

Week 6 Bets

Awwww dang, last week was dangerously close to being a huuuuuge week. I am talking massive week. We narrowly missed the ability to hedge a $1500 dollar bet and also missed a MNF SGP 150-1 bet by 7 more yards from Jonathan Taylor. That is when you know you are close - when you have a 4-week winning streak and was dangerously close to hitting a homer run. This was a real conversation that was had during the Monday Night Football game....

"Honey, this has a legitimate chance to hit and make for a big payoff."

"Ohhh okay, I don't care."

"It would be $1500."

"Yeah, that's cool."

LIKE WHAT?!?!?!? I get not trying to get excited only to be let down. I get not trying to jinx yourself halfway through the game. I even get not wanting to watch and deal with the anxiety. BUT TO NOT EVEN CARE?!?! How about a little something for the effort. How about a little acknowledgement for what was almost achieved. We are talking about hitting 9 legs out of 10 leg parlay in the same game. You know what that means? That nearly perfectly predicting the exact players that were going to have a huge game. To be honest, the 10 leg was even closer than it appeared considering Taylor's final run consisted of a 4 yard loss. Ohhh well, we will take positive weeks every single time and we finished positive and we are going to keep that train rolling into this week.....

Week 6 Bets

A) TNF SGP: Buccs ML/Reagor over 19 receiving yards/Sanders under 49 rushing yards: $15 to win $33

This should be a sweat free bet - although any time you bet the under you will have to sweat it out the entire game. The Buccs are pretty much a lock to win - so that portion should be taken care of. The idea is that the game script will be in favor of a passing game for the Eagles and Reagor should have plenty of opportunity to reach the over. If I were to really throw something together I may even throw Smith in with receptions and yards. The Buccs have a nasty front for defense and a weak secondary. Look for lots of passing plays to be scripted and then a majority of the rushing yards to come from Hurts scrambling.

B) Chiefs -2/Packers -2/Steelers -2: $15 to win $49

I) Chiefs have looked like an absolute mess - but are we really going to think that they can't pull it together and bet Taylor Heinicke. I mean, come on, we are talking about Patrick Mahomes - who has his back against the wall. You could easily give up more points if you really wanted - Mahomes is going to have a big game (with or without Hill).

II) Packers face the Chicago Bears. We all know that Aaron Rodgers does not want to hand over the reigns in this rivalry just yet. There will be a day when Rodgers has to pass the baton  - but in no way am I going to bet that the day is now. Rodgers is about to show up and show the entire city of Chicago that daddy still wears a green jersey.

III) Steelers have been given back-to-back gifts. Last week they got to face off against the Denver Broncos and a banged up Teddy Bridgewater. This week? They will be going against backup quarterback Geno Smith. This is another one of those safe bets that we will be looking to help carry the load to a positive week as we swing for the fences on a few others.

C) Lawrence and Robinson 2+ rushing tds/L. Jackson over 75 rushing yards and Herbert over 300 passing yards/D. Adams and A. Jones over 300 combined rushing and receiving yards: $20 Round Robin

For those that are not familiar with a "round robin," it just adds another layer of betting that allows for a parlay to still pay out something. You build a ticket of outcomes and then place multiples bets that are still viable to payout if one leg fails. In this bet, we placed 3 separate 2-leg bets and a full 3-leg parlay bet. These bets all come from the DraftKings Weekly Specials...

I) Lawrence and Robinson have been running tremendous the past two weeks. When in the red zone Jacksonville loves to operate through play-action reads which allow Lawrence to either hand the ball off or keep himself and try and make a play. These two will definitely have the opportunity to score and put show on for London against Miami's defense - in a game that Jacksonville may have a chance to win.

II) A perfect game plan for both teams feature Jackson making plays with his legs and Herbert breaking down defenses. Baltimore just gave up over 400 passing to Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor had over 100 yards receiving - what do you think Herbert is going to do to them with Ekeler and Allen? 

III) Adams and Jones represent 80% of the offense for Green Bay. If Green Bay is able to have a replicate the same exact game plan this week as it played out last week - this bet will hit. Is Chicago's defense better than Cincy's? Obviously. Does Green Bay want to come out and make a statement win inside the division? You betcha. Will that come through Adams and Jones? Here's hoping.

D) This bet is put better with pictures: $10 to win $26,000

    

If not us, then who??? This is a 12-leg parlay - one of those that you read about on twitter and think, "Man, that would be nice." Here is your chance, let's break down some of the closer bets....

I) Vikings have a legitimate chance to run away with this matchup. This will either go one of two ways, Vikings run away with it or it is a close battle. Detroit will not have the possibility of running away of this. Which means 2 of the 3 possibilities have a high chance of ending in the Vikings favor.

II) Herbert is 100 times better than Wentz. Allen is 100 times better than Pittman. The Chargers have a chance to make a statement in AFC with a big win over Baltimore. Look for LAC to really flex their muscles and send a message that they might be the favorite and not Buffalo.

III) I get it, the Raiders are a "mess" right now. But that shouldn't matter when you have that ferocious defense bearing down on Bridgewater. The Steelers front gave a game plan for what needs to take place in order to slow down the Denver offense. The Raiders defense loves to blitz and turn up the heat on opposing quarterbacks. Look for the Raiders to make a statement win in the wake of the Gruden firing.

IV) Jaguars and Dolphins play in London - historically teams have struggled across the pond. Combine that with two teams that are already struggling offensively. 

V) The Arizona Cardinals are undefeated and are flying high with Murray having a MVP caliber season. This is a tough game, but I can't turn down the opportunity to flip the line and give points while taking the undefeated "underdog."

E) Ekeler over 39 receiving yards/Fields over 12 rushing yards/McLaurin over 5 receptions/Sutton over 4 receptions: $20 to win $175

I) The Chargers were shown the way to attack the Baltimore defense on Monday Night Football - easy check down receptions with the running back. He is averaging just over 5 targets a game and just under 40 yards a game. This includes week 1 when he had zero targets, the opportunity will be there and Ekeler should make the most of it, possibly covering he needed yardage by halftime.

II) Fields is going to be in a position where he will be dropping back often against the Green Bay defense. Eventually, he will need to scramble and pick up needed yardage for first downs near the end of the game. The Bears prefer to pound the ball - but with a negative game script (meaning they should be down) Fields will have opportunity to roll out and pick up needed yardage.

III) McLaurin is in a game that could be high scoring and Kansas City has shown that they can not stop anyone on the defensive side of the ball. Washington will also be in a negative game script - McLaurin should have 10+ targets and could easily cover the receptions by halftime.

IV) Sutton is far and away the best receiver that Denver readily has for this game. Jeudy is still on the IR and Fant will need to stay on the line to help protect Bridgewater. Which means that Sutton will get plenty of looks and the targets will be there.

D) Richard Sherman over 4.5 Tackles + Assists/TJ Watt over 3.5 Tackles + Assists: $20 to win $90

Opposing offense have attacked Sherman and the secondary and tried to stay away from the defense front of Tampa Bay. Sherman is averaging 5 solo tackles a game - which may have been the smarter bet, just taking the solo tackles at 3.5. I firmly believe the ball will be thrown on Sherman's side of the field often and I also firmly believe Sherman has lost a step when it comes to staying with receivers. This creates an opportunity for Sherman's receiver to catch the ball and then be tackled. Watt is a terror on the defensive side of the ball and the Seahawk might be looking to take the ball out of Smith's hands and attempt to pound it. This should create opportunity for Watt to get plenty of tackles - and all we were really want is opportunity. Watt is a great defender and when you give great players opportunities - they tend to make great things happen.

LET'S KEEP THIS TRAIN ROLLING AND MAKE SOME MONEY!!

Week 5 Results

Are you not entertained? What must I do to make everyone believe in "StB?" I mean we are rolling on a big win streak, 4-weeks in a row. This week we made $51... which puts us at a total of up $81 on the year. Doesn't sound like much? Let's put it in perspective....

After Week 1: Down $115

Weeks 2-5: Up $196

Let's say a unit is $5 (previously, we said $1 - but that is not nearly as fun) - for the past 4 weeks we have finished plus 39 units. Now, you tell me where you find a betting blog that can post those kinds of numbers. Not to mention that we were dangerously close to hitting the big bet this past week...

Week 5 Bets

A) Titans ML/Steelers ML/JetsFalcons over 46: Won $105

Like I said, this bet really came down to the game in London. It was a close one with over covering by only 1 point - but hey, we will take it. The Titans did their job - as expected. I also stated that I was going to be featuring the Steelers as a big portion of this week's betting card - and they pulled through!

B) TNF SGP: Lost $10

Let's be real honest, these bets can easily be sucker bets. However, this was not suppose to end as quickly as it did - who would have ever guessed the "Both teams to score more than 6 points in the first half" was the portion that shut it down right away. Not even a good sweat on this one.

C) Steelers -1/Raiders ML/Cowboys ML/Colts +6.5: Lost $20

Seriously,  the Chicago Bears are going to the team to ruin this bet for us - thanks a lot Emo Derek. We could have been sitting easy with a simple hedge tonight to lock up even more profit - but nooooooooo. The Raiders, who have been playing pretty good all season had to go and lose to the Chicago Bears. I still can't believe it, like are the Raiders just really not that good? Maybe that is something we look into next week? Because there is no way in hell the Chicago Bears are really that good. Can we trust the Bears? 

D) Falcons -3.5/Packers -3/Titans -4.5/Steelers -3/Washington -3/Ravens -6.5: Lost $20

Man oh man, this was close to being a big payoff. Everything went as expected (Packers portion was voided because the line ended in a draw, but the parlay was still alive). All we needed was Washington to force Winston into a few tough plays - instead it was Heinicke that had some trouble in ball protection. Something tells me, we are going to hit one of these very soon - very, very soon. When we do, you just make sure to buy yourself something really nice.

E) Aaron Rodgers over 262 passing yards: Won $46

Easy money. I will forever be dumbfounded as to why teams don't triple, quadruple, line the entire secondary across from Davante Adams. I mean we are aware that Adam had over 200 yards receiving.... by himself!!! I think we are in safe company betting that Rodgers over anytime it is less than 300 yards. Thanks for the safest bet of the week Draftkings! We will take this all the way to the bank.

F) Bucs/Pats/Vikings/Raiders/Cowboys/Cardinals/Titans/Ravens: Lost $5

Once again, thanks a lot Raiders. If you are keeping track that is close to $200 in "hedgeable" bets that the Raiders lost for us when they decided to score only 9 points. ONLY 9 F*CKIN POINTS!! Emo Derek is back at it again....

Week 5 Total

Bet: $100

Profit: $52

Be on the lookout @FFDojoSensei for the MNF bet - it is going to be a big one!
 

Week 5 Bets

 Week 5 Bets

A) Titans ML/Steelers ML/JetsvFalcons over 46: $20 to win $105

So far, we have found some rhythm in winning weeks and it based around confident prop bets and three and four game parlays. I truly can not see the Titans dropping two straight games to the Jets and Jaguars respectively. Also, let's not forget the fiasco that is happening in Jacksonville - Titans should be heavy betting favorites by the time this game kicks off. Steelers is sneaky - but super easy - pick in this matchup against the Denver Broncos. You will see this game featured in a few other bets for this week's betting card - mainly because Bridgewater's status is in doubt as he going through the concussion protocol. Which means the nasty defense of Pittsburgh is going to get to go after Drew Lock? Yikes. The last game features two teams that notoriously do not play defense that well. The Jets just scored 27 points against Tennessee and the Falcons scored 30 points against Washington - Washington and Tennesse pose much more of threat than Atlanta and New York. The only thing going against this game is the travel across the pond - which has historically showcased some bad offensive football (that might be more on the fact that the Jaguars are a team that typically plays in London).

B) TNF SGP... Wilson Over 254 passing/Stafford over 275 passing/Metcalf 5+ receptions/Metcalf 70+ yards receiving/Over 20 point each team/Over 5 points each team 1H/Wilson to score a touchdown: $10 to win $160

In all reality, this is the best Thursday Night Football game we have had in a while. I am looking for these offenses to put on a show. In fact, the Rams are notorious for being high scoring battles on TNF. With that being said, look for the quarterbacks to make this game about them. Most of these bets are fairly easy to accomplish. Wilson and Stafford should be able to easily reach their passing yardage and Metcalf should be able to get his 5 receptions for 70 yards (his average for the year). The point totals should pose no threat - essentially this bet comes down to whether or not Wilson can get into the endzone using his feet. If you remove that portion of the bet - you are looking at odds around +320, which isn't bad... but why not throw a chance that Wilson scrambles and gets a touchdown? Why not? 

C) Steelers -1/Raiders ML/Cowboys ML/Colts +6.5: $20 to win $140

Let's break this down....

I) Steelers -1 - as stated earlier in bet "A," this should be a well featured game on betting cards.

II) Raiders ML - The Raiders are actually a really good team and I don't see them losing two in row. Not to mention, they are back home and facing a Chicago Bears team that just lost their starting RB (Montgomery was having a fantastic year). Look for Derek Carr and goth stare down to take control early and bounce back after their MNF loss.

III) Cowboys ML - The Cowboys are at home against the NY Giants. In a game that I expect to be very high scoring, I am looking for Prescott to outshine Jones. Barkley is finally getting everything together, but I am searching for a reason to pick the Giants and I just can't find one. The Cowboys are just better at every position on the offensive side of the ball - literally every position.

IV) Colts +6.5 - This would the hedge portion of the bet. Last week, we had to hedge but took terrible odds on our hedge. This week we are going to bet the spread, which will help the hedge aspect when we get to MNF.

D) Falcons -3.5/Packers -3/Titans -4.5/Steelers -3/Washington -3/Ravens -6.5: $20 to win $1521

Once again, let's break it down...

I) Falcons -3.5: I actually like the Falcons a lot in this game. I understand that the Jets just beat the Titans, but there is something to be said about experience and traveling. This game has the largest amount of travel a team can face and the Falcons have experienced players who have been in big situations. Look for experience to shine in this one.

II) Packers -3: I love Rodgers and the boys in a game where the Bengals might missing Joe Mixon. The Packers should have no trouble with the Bengals defense and Burrow is gonna find out that Green Bay is not Jacksonville and will have trouble finding as many openings to throw the ball down field.

III) Titans -4.5: This is the Jaguars. Have you paid attention to the news? Urban Meyer is getting lap dances by blondes that aren't his wife or his quarterback. The Jaguars are giving obnoxious amounts offensive yardage to the opposing teams. A team facing the Jaguars should be a lock every single week.

IV) Steelers -3: If you haven't caught on yet, this is a big game for our card this week.

V) Washington -3: I think that Washington has a legitimate chance to upset the Saints. We are talking about a team that is reeling from losing in overtime to the New York Giants. On top of that, Washington is at home and the have a tough defensive front. Look for Chase Young to get after Winston and force him into old habits - throwing the ball into trouble. This could be a game where A. Gibson finally gets to shine and show us what he can really do.

VI) Ravens -6.5: Remember the hedge portion of the previous bet. This is a hedge without actually being a true hedge. Can you imagine if both of these parlays are live going into MNF? I mean why not?

E) Aaron Rodgers over 262 passing yards: $25 to win $46

For the record Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 261 yards. With that being said, he has faced San Fransisco, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and New Orleans. Outside of the awful game against New Orleans - the other three matchups are not in his favor. Cincy is none of those teams when it comes secondaries. They did just give up over 200 yards to Trevor Lawrence... and he lost one his best downfield receivers in the first quarter.

F) Bucs/Pats/Vikings/Raiders/Cowboys/Cardinals/Titans/Ravens all ML: $5 to win $51

Will this happen? Probably not. I have simply selected the heavier favorites to win outright - I figured I only $5 left for this week's betting card so why not throw them together to see what I can get the odds up to for a nice hit if the favorites pull through (as they should).

Be Beautiful and let's make some MULAH!!

Week 4 Results

Amigos, Blind Mice, Destiny's Child, The Powderpuff Girls - what do all these things have in common?

Famous things in sets of three.

Just like this run we are on. Three in a row is a big feeling - a nice foundation to continue to build on. On top of that, we are now out of the hole that we dug in week one. A lot of bettor keep track on units. If our units is $1... we are up 29 units. Some of you could tail that and make your units $5 - which means in the course of 4 weeks, you would be up nearly $150 - not too shabby for completely losing everything in week one. 

A) Chiefs/Titan/Buccs: $25.... Lost

How? Did pigs start flying? Are fish walking? How did the Titans lose to the New York Jets? How do you get in the red zone 3 times and finish with a field goal. The last time I checked - Derrick Henry still plays for Tennessee. Why wouldn't you line it up and just pound your way through? Instead, there was roll outs and drop backs from a team that was missing their top two receivers - ones who are known for being big and physical. Absolutely asanine.

B) Total Combined Field Goals in Broncos/Ravens: $25... Lost

This bet was doomed once Teddy "2-Gloves" got knocked out of the game. The Ravens (Tucker) finished with over 100 yards by themselves... just needed one field goal from the Broncos. JUST ONE. But noooooooo, instead they don't even attempt a field goal - don't even give us little guys a chance!

C) Joe Burrow over 245 yards: $25.... won $47

Guess how many yards Burrow ended with? 348 - like I said.... just take the over in passing yards for opposing QBs against the Jags. You can pretty much bet that we will doing the same bet next week, and the next, and the next week.

D) Browns -2/Raiders ML/Buccs ML/ LionsvBears under 42: $20... won $85

Sometimes you win bets solely because of the structure of the bet. Take this bet for example - it was never intended to be seen all the way through. The Browns and Lions/Bear portion of the bet took place during the 1:00 games. Both of which were successful and then it was game on from there. There was no chance I was cashing out before the Buccs game - which ended up being far more scarier than I was hoping. Once that hit, the intention was to hedge/cash out for the MNF. If you follow @FFDojoSensei, then you saw that MNF bet was actually a hedge on this parlay. Guaranteed profit!

E) Colts -3/Titans ML/Jags +7/TexansvBills over 47: $15... Lost

Colts.... easy money. Jags.... easy money. The Bills scoring 40.... easy money. How the Texans couldn't muster up one touchdown drive is beyond me. Luckily it didn't matter, because the JETS beat the Titans. Iy yi yi - it turns out that game was the lock of the century. However, it is always better to lose multiple legs of a parlay than one losing one.

Week 4 Running Total

Placed: $100

Profit: $32